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OK so rereading everything.

There appears to be two camps.

The first is 2021/22 where they want to see a Switch 2 release and think the power will be close to base PS4

The second is 2024/25 where they see no reason for a Switch 2 soon as it is not competing with the competition anyway so may as well try to bridge the gap to PS5 a bit more and develop better batteries to last longer in portable mode.

Which camp is right will ultimately depends on what Nintendo want to do in terms of support. I think both are possibilities if Nintendo don't just stop supporting Switch similar to how they let the Wii die.