shikamaru317 said:
Slownenberg said:
I don't know why you are so sure Switch 2 would come out in 2022. 2023 seems far more likely, and would mean there is time to get a later chip. I pretty much think there is no way they will release a new system before 2023. Think about it, Switch is still gaining momentum. It's gonna have about a 20 million sales year this year (better than PS4's best year), and in all likelihood will sell even more next year. In 2021 it should still be selling very strongly (likely a lot better than PS4 did this year, a year before its next system), they're not gonna cut that off with a 2022 release.
I'm assuming they'll do another Spring time release because having two big selling periods in year 1 for the Switch worked really well. So Spring 2023 is the most likely date. Also Nintendo themselves said they want the Switch's lifespan to be longer, which guarantees it'll be no shorter than 6 years. I don't think they'd wait longer than 2023 though because by 2022 they won't be getting any multiplat games anymore since development will have totally switched over to the new gen rather than ps4/one, so to not go too long without any big multiplat games they'll need to release in 2023.
I could see them doing a holiday 2023 release if they need more time to get great launch games ready, which is certainly possible if they want a Zelda or 3D Mario to launch with the system and even if BotW 2 comes out holiday 2020 that'll be a quick turnaround for Zelda, and if there is a second 3D Mario in let's say 2021, that would also be a very quick turnaround to get ready for Spring of 2023. Sometime between March and November 2023 we'll see Switch 2. A Mario Kart 9 + zelda or 3d mario or pokemon launch seems like the best thing to launch with.
So an expected 2023 Switch 2 release should come with a chip from probably 2021, not 2019.
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Several reasons:
- There are many reports that Nintendo already made a deal with Sharp to use their high quality IGZO screens on an upcoming system. These reports go back as far as early 2019.
- According to reports, Nintendo recently made a deal with Macronix to use their 64 GB 3D Nand cartridges, and supposedly Nintendo is first in line for these. These could be for Switch, but it seems unlikely given how few games have exceeded the current max of 32 GB on Switch. The cost of these carts will likely be quite high since it is new technology, it makes more sense that Nintendo is planning to use these in a couple of years on a next gen system, as the smallest cartridge size for Switch 2, with larger options available as necessary.
- There have been job listings at Nintendo mentioning things like experience with engines that aren't compatible with Switch 1, prototyping new wi-fi and bluetooth technology, 3D Spatial audio, multi-threading, asynchronous compute, OS emulation with VirtIO drivers, and writing new PCEe drivers. These are all things that suggest a new console in development, and some of these job listings were quite old. It would seem a tad strange for Nintendo to be hiring for 2023 console development as far back as 2018.
So, I do think that we may be seeing a Switch 2 in 2022. However, it's also possible that the above is pointing to the release of a mid-gen upgrade Switch Pro in 2020, which will have an IGZO display, make use of 64 GB 3D NAND carts, and have some of those features from the job listings. However, that seems a bit unlikely to me, for a Switch Pro to need 64 GB carts, it would need to be using Tegra Xavier, I don't think that developers would be able to push graphics enough on Tegra X2 to need larger cartridges just for Switch Pro, and a Tegra Xavier using Switch Pro in 2020 would be very expensive, like $400 or more, and I'm not sure how much demand there is for something in that price range among Nintendo fans. Nintendo isn't well known for using state of the art tech on systems, they haven't actually done that in decades, Wii was basically an overclocked Gamecube, Wii U was a small upgrade over 360/PS3, and Switch used nearly 2 year old tech.
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