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Farsala on 26 December 2019
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Bofferbrauer2 said:
Farsala said:

The Wii (and most consoles) ship most of their units within the first 5 years (21 quarters). This is more true today due to worldwide launches in multiple territories.

Wii: 93.5%

DS: 81.2%

3DS: 75.4%

Wii U (lol): 100%,

PS3: 72%

PS4 (assuming 115m sold): 80%

PS2: 55%

The reasons PS2 sold as well as it did after 5 years, is because the Wii launched late, the PS3/360 were too expensive, mass market price, and late launches in territories (Korea, Taiwan, Brazil, India, etc.). I don't think consoles before 2000 are relevant to compare, but even so I wouldn't have the proper data.

So unless you expect 10+ years of support, and an extremely expensive Switch 2/ launching late, a $99 Switch, and a launch in Antarctica to prop up sales, I think it would be a tough ask.

But let's humor you.

Let's assume Switch sells as Nintendo expects this FY. 18m 52.74m (13 quarters)

Now next year is it's peak year. 21m 73.74m (17 quarters)

And a modest drop like the PS4. 16m 89.74m (21 quarters)

Assuming PS2 legs, it would sell 163m, above the PS2. Assuming 3DS legs, it would sell 119m. Assuming DS legs (most likely), it would sell 110m.

Yes, beating the 3DS has already been stated clearly. But it definitely is not tracking above the Wii or DS, it is tracking just below both of them, and they both had different trajectories. Sure the Switch will probably have better legs than the Wii, but that doesn't mean it won't follow the same general trajectory that consoles typically do.

While I mostly agree, you forgot the reason why generations are getting longer and longer: Diminishing returns from graphical improvements. Which means that you need bigger and bigger leaps to see some clear visual differences. As a result generations need to become longer to make a great visual difference with their respective predecessors, especially now where we come closer and closer to photorealism.

Nintendo has the advantage of being able to make a much bigger leap in graphics if they so choose.

I think that they can make the push if they really wanted to, but they want to wait until the parts get cheap enough for mass market consumption. For example the 360 and PS3 were released too early, while the PS4 and XB1 were released at good time.