The_Liquid_Laser said:
If you look carefully Switch is actually selling a lot better than the 3DS. That is because 3DS basically peaked around its second year. It got an early price cut and then gradually declined. In spite of all that, Nintendo supported the 3DS for 8 years (2011-2018). In contrast, Switch sales are still accelerating. This is not the peak year for the Switch. Considering it is both outselling the 3DS in raw units, and it is far outstripping it in profits, Nintendo is going to want to support it for a long time, 10+ years. On top of all this we have barely seen the Switch's total library of games, maybe a quarter of its total library at best. Nintendo handhelds always have lots of third party exclusives, but we really haven't seen any yet other than the ones Nintendo specifically lobbied for like Octopath Traveler. 2020 is actually the first year that we have an indication that handheld devs are ready to release their third party exclusives like Bravely Default 2 and Rune Factory 5. All of these devs are taking longer to make their games, because it is a huge leap to go from the 3DS to Switch. Also Western devs are prepared to port over a ton of games as soon as the price of carts drops. So far 16 GB is the highest most devs will go with a couple of exceptions. When prices drop any game that can fit on 32 GB (most games) will be ready to come to Switch. Basically there are a ton of third party games still in the pipeline that will help drive Switch sales. Given that Switch sales are still accelerating and it is highly profitable Nintendo is going to support it for a long time. The third party library is still a tiny fraction of what it will be. And Switch is going to pulling from both home and handheld gamers. Put all of that together and Switch is going to be the best selling system yet, outselling even the PS2. It's sales curve will be like the NES which peaked later than an average system and still had a huge tail end. |
The Wii (and most consoles) ship most of their units within the first 5 years (21 quarters). This is more true today due to worldwide launches in multiple territories.
Wii: 93.5%
DS: 81.2%
3DS: 75.4%
Wii U (lol): 100%,
PS3: 72%
PS4 (assuming 115m sold): 80%
PS2: 55%
The reasons PS2 sold as well as it did after 5 years, is because the Wii launched late, the PS3/360 were too expensive, mass market price, and late launches in territories (Korea, Taiwan, Brazil, India, etc.). I don't think consoles before 2000 are relevant to compare, but even so I wouldn't have the proper data.
So unless you expect 10+ years of support, and an extremely expensive Switch 2/ launching late, a $99 Switch, and a launch in Antarctica to prop up sales, I think it would be a tough ask.
But let's humor you.
Let's assume Switch sells as Nintendo expects this FY. 18m 52.74m (13 quarters)
Now next year is it's peak year. 21m 73.74m (17 quarters)
And a modest drop like the PS4. 16m 89.74m (21 quarters)
Assuming PS2 legs, it would sell 163m, above the PS2. Assuming 3DS legs, it would sell 119m. Assuming DS legs (most likely), it would sell 110m.
Nu-13 said:
Just because he is wrong doesn't mean you have to be too. The switch is very much on track to confortably beat the 3ds and wii unless something catastrofic happens. |
Yes, beating the 3DS has already been stated clearly. But it definitely is not tracking above the Wii or DS, it is tracking just below both of them, and they both had different trajectories. Sure the Switch will probably have better legs than the Wii, but that doesn't mean it won't follow the same general trajectory that consoles typically do.
