PS4 VS Switch lifetime sales, which console will sell the most?

[The_Liquid_Laser]

Barkley said:

Nu-13 said:

I don't see these ps4 legs you're talking about. It had it's peak in 2017, declined a little last year, moderately this year and will continue declining next year. That's neither great or bad legs, just standard. If it drops 40% in 2020, 50-60% in 2021 and some more later, it's gonna end a little under 120m. If the drops are harsher, it could end at a little over 115m.

For measuring the legs of a console I like to use the percentage of total sales it sold in it's first 4 years. E.G if a console sells 70% of it's lifetime sales in it's first 4 years it has much worse legs than a console that sells just 55% and has another 45% still to come. The PS4 sold 67m in it's first 4 years so let's go with the PS4 selling 120m LT to put it in the table:

	First 4 Years
WiiU	99.10%
N64	91.10%
Gamecube	88.80%
Wii	83.20%
Vita	81.10%
3DS	68.00%
DS	60.40%
PSP	57.40%
PS4	55.90%
PS1	53.20%
PS3	53.20%
PS2	46.00%
X360	43.40%

You're right it has neither bad or good legs... for a PlayStation. But it exceeds the legs of every Nintendo system that's been released since they joined the market.

"At that point the switch will be at around 100m. It will keep dropping in the following years, ending it's life at 125-130m."

(...)

Your list is misleading.  The real reason PS4 has good legs is that it is the lead console for the generation.  Lead consoles tend to have much better legs than other consoles.  If you compare the first 4 years of PS4 to other lead consoles it looks more like this:

	First 4 Years
Wii	83.20%
3DS	68.00%
GBA	63.08%
SNES	63.02%
DS	60.40%
PS4	55.90%
PS1	53.20%
PS2	46.00%
NES	33.07%
Gameboy	18.82%
Atari 2600	8.00%

As it turns out Nu-13 is exactly right.  PS4 has average legs, for a leading console.  The main factor that makes the PS4 have good legs is that it is the leading console for the generation.  Once you compare it to other leading consoles, then it has average legs.