| Nu-13 said:
There are so many ways to look at this and change the numbers. One could claim we should count sales after year 5/6, or after the peak, or after the successor is out. In all of those we could also argue between % sales or absolute numbers and in most cases your list order would be different. If the switch has a similar increase in 2020 and sells a little above 2019 in 2021, it's getting around 100m at the end of 2021. Speculation is all we can do right now but since it sold so much without a price cut, I find it more likely than not that it will sell those numbers. |
Sales before vs after 4 years is the ideal statistic to judge a systems legs imo. Using absolute numbers without converting to percentage doesn't make sense as legs are all about how a product resists decline not how well it sells. It should be proportional. A system that sells 60m in it's first 4 years and then 20m after doesn't have stronger legs than a system that sells 20m in it's first 4 years and then 18m after. One has barely declined, thus strong legs, the other has declined massively, yet is still the more successful system.
As for the point about the year changing it's outcome, I did year 5 as well the results remain similar. "after the successor is out" would be a damning metric to use for Nintendo products.
| First 4 Years | First 5 Years |
| WiiU (94.6%) | N64 (99.3%) |
| N64 (91.1%) | Gamecube (97.5%) |
| Gamecube (88.8%) | WiiU (96.9%) |
| Wii (83.2%) | Vita (92.1%) |
| Vita (81.1%) | Wii (87.9%) |
| 3DS (68%) | 3DS (86%) |
| DS (60.4%) | DS (72.3%) |
| PSP (57.4%) | PS4 (72%) |
| PS4 (55.9%) | PS1 (69.6%) |
| PS1 (53.2%) | PSP (67.5%) |
| PS3 (53.2%) | PS3 (64.4%) |
| PS2 (46%) | PS2 (55.4%) |
| X360 (43.4%) | X360 (53.7%) |
"If the switch has a similar increase in 2020 and sells a little above 2019 in 2021, it's getting around 100m at the end of 2021."
I expect it will have a mild increase in 2020, nothing major. I don't think there's much chance at all that 2021 can match, let alone beat 2019.
To get 100m by the end of 2021 what are you expecting? Something like this?
2020: 28m
2021: 22m
This seems VERY optimistic, but you're right all we can do is speculate. We'll have a much clearer picture by summer 2021. We'll know by then how high the peak was in 2020 (Assuming it does peak which isn't completely guaranteed) and have some indication of how big the decline in 2021 is.
