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Nu-13 on 22 December 2019
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zorg1000 said:
Nu-13 said:

While we don't know what exactly nintendo will do, it's basically impossible for sales to drop next year. We know of a few major games that are releasing to keep the audience interested and at this point a price cut is extremely likely. The best case scenario is that nintendo cuts the price to $249 in the first half of the year and also phases out the lite for a real switch lite that docks and includes a dock for $199. But even if just the regular model gets a cut, it would already guarantee huge sales. They could save a price cut to $199 and $149 respectively for late 2021 or early 2022.

Impossible is quite the hyperbole.

No, we dont know about a few major games, we know of 1 which is Animal Crossing. The other announced games are either smaller titles (Tokyo Mirage Sessions, Xenoblade HD, Bravely Default) or have no confirmed release window (BotW 2, Metroid, Bayonetta).

Phasing out Lite makes absolutely no sense, it just came out 3 months ago so what you are proposing is nothing more than a pipe dream rather than an actual prediction.

Nintendo can be a very conservative company when it comes to price cuts, it's just as likely that they completely skip out on a price cut next year because they view the hybrid as the premium sku and Lite as the affordable, entry level sku similar to how none of the 3D models got price cuts after 2DS released.

On top of that Nintendo usually goes with added value bundles before going with price cuts, Switch has yet to have a pack in title outside of holiday deals so packing in a game rather than a price cut is something they could very likely do.

If the lineup is stacked and we get a price cut than I expect to see next year be up YoY.

If the lineup is lacking and we get no price cut than I expect to see next year down YoY.

I personally expect something in the middle, a solid lineup with added value bundles leading to sales being roughly flat YoY.

Nintendo isn't conservative with price cuts. They used those whenever it made sense but are being stubborn with the switch. Expecting then to go 4 years without one is too much. Phasing out a clearly undesirable product like the lite and replacing it with a real one isn't a pipe dream, it's just optimistic. I am expecting a great lineup and a price cut. With or without the lite being fixed, it will give the switch a big yoy boost.