trunkswd said:
If the Switch sells 20 million in 2020 it will be around 70 million sold, which would put it right behind the 3DS. I see the Switch topping 100 million lifetime with how good the sales currently are. It should have much better legs than the Wii. |
Conservatively, it will definitely sell at least 100m. But I actually think Switch still has some major surprises left.
Switch has almost no third party exclusives yet, even though the 3DS had a lot of third party exclusives. Because of that I think there are a lot of third party exclusives still one the way. All of these 3DS developers are actually working on Switch games right now. A good example is Bravely Default 2, which was just announced. I thought games like this would have been here sooner, but apparently going from the 240p 3DS to the 720p-900p Switch is going to prolong development time a lot. It's a big adjustment.
Right now most third party games are ports or indies, but I think Switch has a much richer third party library in its future. That will lead to much greater lifetime sales than 100m. It won't just be first party games carrying the Switch almost single handedly.
curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6
My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox