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trunkswd said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:
The most important thing to note is that 3DS sales rate had already peaked well before this 33 month point. Meanwhile Switch sales are currently accelerating. Lifetime, Switch is going to easily blow the 3DS away.

If the Switch sells 20 million in 2020 it will be around 70 million sold, which would put it right behind the 3DS. I see the Switch topping 100 million lifetime with how good the sales currently are. It should have much better legs than the Wii. 

Conservatively, it will definitely sell at least 100m.  But I actually think Switch still has some major surprises left.  

Switch has almost no third party exclusives yet, even though the 3DS had a lot of third party exclusives.  Because of that I think there are a lot of third party exclusives still one the way.  All of these 3DS developers are actually working on Switch games right now.  A good example is Bravely Default 2, which was just announced.  I thought games like this would have been here sooner, but apparently going from the 240p 3DS to the 720p-900p Switch is going to prolong development time a lot.  It's a big adjustment.

Right now most third party games are ports or indies, but I think Switch has a much richer third party library in its future.  That will lead to much greater lifetime sales than 100m.  It won't just be first party games carrying the Switch almost single handedly.