Relax folks, it might sell over 500K in the next few weeks if Nintendo can supply that many.
Demand is clearly there for Ring Fit Adventure, Nintendo will ship a large amount for the holiday weeks and this will help their hardware sales. There is really nothing else to compete with Ring Fit and Pokemon on the software front this December. They will take the 1st and 2nd slot in the Software charts. But if Nintendo supply enough copies Ring Fit Adenture can sell more than Pokemon during December.
Just look at what new evergreens like Super Mario Party and Pokemon did between week 49 and week 1 last year:
Week 49
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 1.220.535 / NEW <68,52%>
Pokemon: Let's Go, Pikachu! / Let's Go, Eevee! - 93.787 / 1.012.247 (-1%)
Super Mario Party - 69.861 / 489.767 (+40%)
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 20.995 / 1.881.751 (+62%)
Splatoon 2 - 19.083 / 2.740.677 (+57%)
Week 50
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 406.617 / 1.627.152 (-67%)
Pokemon: Let's Go, Pikachu! / Let's Go, Eevee! - 108.773 / 1.121.020 (+16%)
Super Mario Party - 97.529 / 587.295 (+40%)
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 29.422 / 1.911.174 (+40%)
Minecraft - 27.625 / 431.410 (+63%)
Week 51
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 452.617 / 2.079.769 (+11%)
Super Mario Party - 155.060 / 742.355 (+59%)
Pokemon: Let's Go, Pikachu! / Let's Go, Eevee!- 144.770 / 1.265.790 (+33%)
Dragon Quest Builders 2 - 97.673 / NEW
Minecraft - 48.359 / 479.769 (+75%)
Week 52
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 275.417 / 2.355.186 (-39%)
Super Mario Party - 98.682 / 841.037 (-36%)
Pokemon: Let's Go, Pikachu! / Let's Go, Eevee! - 65.497 / 1.331.287 (-55%)
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 41.872 / 2.000.142 (-11%)
Dragon Quest Builders 2 - 34.589 / 132.262 (-65%)
Week 1
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 258.974 / 2.614.160 (-6%)
Super Mario Party - 95.102 / 936.140 (-4%)
Pokemon: Let's Go, Pikachu! / Let's Go, Eevee! - 68.308 / 1.399.595 (+4%)
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 55.758 / 2.055.899 (+33%)
Dragon Quest Builders 2 - 47.176 / 179.438 (+36%)
2018 Holiday Top 3:
- Smash - 2.613.860
- Super Mario Party - 516.234
- Pokemon Let's Go - 481.135
2019 Holiday Top 3:
- Pokemon Sword/Shield >1M
- Ring Fit Adventure >500K
- Luigi Mansion/Super Mario Party >300K
If Nintendo supplies 1M Ring Fit copies in the next few weeks I honestly think they could sell that many in Japan by Week 2 of 2020. I'm sceptical of this so expect Nintendo to only ship 500K copies for holiday weeks 49 to week 1.
Oh forgot Super Mario Party will be a factor this holiday as well due to JoyCon Bundle
