PS4 VS Switch lifetime sales, which console will sell the most?

[VideoGameAccountant]

The_Liquid_Laser said:

VideoGameAccountant said:

I think we're its ridiculous is that they will do a 6 year lifespan again when the market no longer does that and that it's unwise to kill a successful console early. The whole 6 year lifespan was an Iwata idea (and Iwata was an awful business strategist unless he took it directly from another book). Kimishima was basically saying they weren't going to stick to a hard and fast timeframe for the Switch like they did with the Wii and DS. Earliest I could see it is Holiday 2023 and that would be to take advantage of the holiday seasons (which would mean the Switch had a 6 and 3/4th year lifespan). 

This whole post reads as extremely ignorant.

First, Iwata is the best business strategist that gaming has ever seen.  He planned the strategies for 5 consoles: DS, Wii, 3DS, Wii U, Switch.  He's got one dud (Wii U), one so-so system (3DS) and 3 massive successes.  And what matters in business is profitability.  We already know the profitability of the DS and Wii blows away anything else, and the Switch has just barely gotten going.  No other CEO in gaming has gotten results anywhere near that good.  Not Kaz Hirai, not even Yamauchi.  Iwata is the best business strategist in the entire history of gaming.

Secondly, a 6 year lifespan is normal.  That is what the market wants.  Things have not changed based on technology.  Both PS4 and XB1 are going to have embarrassing years in 2020 until they release their next console.  They waited a year longer than they should have to release their successors.  A 30-50% YoY drop is normal for a console in it's tail end.  Sony has only avoided embarrassment so far, because it has expanded the PS4 to sell in new places in Europe.  The PS4 will not have too big of a drop next year in Europe, because it is less than 6 years old in places like Poland and the Czech Republic.  But in Japan and North America it's going to be embarrassing for PS4.  For XB1 it's going to be extremely embarrassing next year in every region.

Likewise, the Switch can only put off releasing more than 6 years if it can reach a new customer base of significant size.  I actually think it is going to do this, but only time will tell.  The 6 year cycle on a console is real though.  People get tired of a console after a while and want to move on.  It's not based on technology. 

A few things. First, no, Iwata was a terrible business strategist. The reason the Wii and the DS were successful was specifically because he followed two business books "Blue Ocean Strategy" and "The Innovator's Dilemma". The minute he stopped following them, Nintendo crashed and Nintneod posted some of their worst earnings in the company's history. He almost killed the handheld line with the 3DS and Nintendo had to cut the price by $80 just to save it. Even then, after 7 years it still sold less than what the GBA did in 4. That's to say nothing of the Wii U. These are both Iwata era consoles.  Any business decision he made was a disaster. He killed the Wii and DS off prematurely, lost all of their western development except Retro (something Yamauchi saw as important), and created the structure of the Pokemon Company which has lost the company billions in potential profit.  

Also, while you can say the 6 year lifespan is bad, you can't deny that is what companies are actually doing. The PS3 and 360 had a 7 year life. The PS4 and XBox One are having a 7 year life. At this point, it's becoming the norm. This is why you have Kimishima saying that Switch will be 7-10 years. 6 years isn't the norm and Nintendo hurt themselves by sticking with the 6 year lifespan.