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Marth said:
Barkley said:

Last year Switch sold another 5.63m after Black Friday. So even if it was flat YoY, Switch will end the year 50.2m easily beating the Snes!

Black Friday week was up by 19% YoY, so if the rest of the year followed it'd end the year with 51.2m, but without the boost from Smash Bros 2018 got it's difficult to say whether this year will be Up, Flat or even slightly down. I don't really know what to expect!

But outselling the SNES by the end of the year is pretty much guaranteed. Should be anywhere from 49.9m-51.3m

20.3m - 21.7m sales for the year, I think I lost the bet. I don't see 2020 beating 2019 anymore. If it does it'll be very close.

Depends a lot on how Animal Crossing harmonizes with the Switch Lite and how the game is.

It SHOULD be a guaranteed 15-20M seller over a long peroid of time and raise the baseline of hardware sales.
2020 could become insane for the Switch.

But it depends a lot on the next showing. How good is this new Animal Crossing? Guess a January Direct will tell.

Learnt after this post that there's one less week after Black Friday this year than last year. So 2019 will probably have maybe 1m less then I thought, 19.3m-20.7m. Which I think gives 2020 a much better shot.

I'm sure Animal Crossing will sell 15m-20m.