RolStoppable said:
That's wrong on a couple of levels. Firstly, 52.74m minus the 43.0m from the VGC frontpage is a difference of 9.74m, not 8.74m. Secondly, and this is more important, Nintendo forecasts shipments while VGC tracks sell-through. Switch needs to reach 52.74m in LTD shipments by March 2020 for Nintendo to meet their forecast of 18m for the fiscal year. The gap between shipments and sell-through for a successful console is commonly ~2m, so LTD sell-through by the end of March 2020 has to get in the area of 50.7m units. Switch needs to sell-through ~7.7m in the next four months and a week. 2018's final five weeks are at ~5.6m on VGC, but in 2018 Black Friday occured before the aforementioned period, meaning that 2019 has a significant advantage in the fifth to last week of the year because Black Friday occurs during that week in 2019. There's no Super Smash Bros. Ultimate in this year's December, but there's the Switch Lite. For argument's sake, let's just say Switch is flat and sells 5.6m more by the end of December. The first 13 weeks of 2019 (January to March) were 2.7m, so if Switch is flat during that period too, we get a total of 8.3m, above the 7.7m that Switch needs for Nintendo's forecast. |
Another ace in the sleeve is Animal Crossing releasing at the very end of the fiscal year which should provide a significant hardware boost to launch date. I think we might see another Lite SKU releasing.
