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Y'all put way too much emphasis on counting exclusives seperately. The vast majority of gamers is casual ones. The ones that buys a console when it's a hot item in society or when it has deals and price reductions or new models. It's not really about 1 mario or 1 zelda but the accumulation of games.

The more exclusives you add, the more someone will be tempted to buy it. Some take more time then others and might need 2 Zelda games, so saying that with Botw already on it the second one wont have much effect is stupid. Also knowing Nintendo, there will probably be more collector editions in the future making fans buying multiple consoles cause it seems that you also all forget that people tend to do that. I'm sure some people have multiple PS4s and will have multiple Switchs, even more now with the lite adding a different approach so you can easily combine both in your lifestyle.

That lite effect still hasnt hit the holiday or a long run either, its brand new and for now switch sales have been enormous so let's see if the momentum continues next year with again huge titles starting the year compare to previous years where it was dry until june (except the launch).

Switch also had barely any deals. It is having its third BF and still same price but with 1 game. Nintendo can be way more aggressive than that and probably millions of people are waiting to buy a switch at a lower price or with more games and once these are at lower prices as well (Nintendo classic line).

And it has been reported that lite sales doesnt affect the classic ones, so the price point for the lite wont affect the number of potential buyers for a classic switch price cut. We can expect more models as well. 50 millions in before 2020 and there is still so much marketing possibilities and the momentum isnt slowing down with Switch having an incredible reputation in the gaming community in general, compared to what the Wii had.

So anyone thinking this is on par to 3DS, honey 90 millions is easily the floor for this one and the only thing in it's way is Nintendo releasing a new console too early like they tend to do sometimes with handheld.