I'm surprised that so many people think it will be 360.
Wii should pass 360 in total million-sellers either late this year or early next year.
In fact, I think Wii should have 55-60 million-sellers through the end of March, 2009. The install base will be approaching 50M by then, which can certainly support that many million-sellers, so the only question is if there will be enough software. Despite complaints of "no good games," there will easily be enough.
There's about 8-10 already released Wii games which have a slow burn towards 1M (Pokemon, Game Party, HSM, Cooking Mama, Smarty Pants, DDR, Sega Tennis, Monkey Ball, Deca Sports, Lego Indy, We Ski). And then there's the annual franchises which will start hitting 1M on Wii this year: Madden, FIFA, Pro Evo, Tiger Woods, Need for Speed, The Sims 2 expansion games, Rock Band and WWE all could, in addition to Guitar Hero; all those series have already reached any million-selling potential they have on 360. Plus the rise of Wii-specific annual franchises like MySims, RRR and Carnival Games. And then liscensed games from kids properties or animated movies could start reaching 1M frequently. We know very little about upcoming first party games, but the bulk of them should sell 1M as well. Then round it out with Sonic Unleashed, GH Aerosmith, Lego Batman, etc., plus continued surprise hits.
It will all add up very quickly.
"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."
Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.
