Global Hardware 2 November 2019

[zorg1000]

trunkswd said:

zorg1000 said:

I agree and I'm curious what they have in store for next year to keep momentum high.

The big holiday titles will make sure Winter sales are strong then Animal Crossing will move alot of units in Spring so I can see the first half of the year being up YoY but they are going to need to do alot to make sure sales dont start declining in the 2nd half.

This year had Mario Maker (last week of H1), Fire Emblem, 2D Zelda, Luigi's Mansion, Pokemon and a surprise hit in Ring Fit plus an improved model and a cheaper revision.

That's a stacked lineup to contend with so I expect the 2nd half of 2020 to be when we start seeing sales decline. Potential releases like BotW2 & Pokemon Gen 4 remakes will be big sellers and move hardware but diminishing returns will come into play so perhaps a price cut is in order (Hybrid-$249.99, Lite-$169.99).

Animal Crossing will move units. What will be the big release(s) in holiday 2020? That is tough to answer. I'd love to see Mario Odyssey 2 or a full blown Mario 64 remake. BotW2 is probably a bit further off. I wonder if a New Super Mario Bros. Switch makes sense or if Mario Maker 2 has satisfied the desire for 2D Mario games. A Pokemon remake would sell plenty as the series always has done. 

Nintendo likes making profits over its console sales, so a price cut next year only makes sense is if they can still profit. I'd see the Lite dropping to $180 and standard Switch dropping to $249, but not lower. More likely Nintendo does a bundle with MK8D than drops the price. 

With both NSMB Deluxe & Mario Maker 2 both releasing this year, I have a hard time seeing a new 2D Mario releasing next year.

Odyssey 2 would be great but it has the same issue as BotW2 or Pokemon in that they will sell a ton of software and will move a good amount of hardware but their strength will be dimished by the fact that they all already have installments on Switch.

And I agree that we probably wont see a flat out price cut next year, added value bundles are more likely.

Overall I expect sales to slow down next year, not a huge decline though, maybe something like down 10-15% YoY so still very high sales.