naz, I would almost agree that SMG or SSBB will nearly outsell either GTA internation, but who knows.
However, the most important thing is, that GTA is a very, very, very solid selling franchise that has made it's transition to consoles (since it was a PC-only game early on, and never sold too hot on PS1 for GTA2).
You can't underestimate the value, and importance of a 16m+ seller PER IP. No game right now has that kind of clout outside of DS Brain Training. I'd even argue that SMG won't have that kind of pedigree (however, despite only 2 being out, I'd say SSBB has a strong pedigree as it sells well everywhere, and could even topple SMG).
Again, every GTA has sold very well, and hasn't missed a beat, therefore even with alot of next-gen competition (Saints Row, Crackdown, Godtather, Scarface), GTA is THE game.
Both itenerations will sell very well, and move alot of systems. GTAIV on PS3 will help those really wanting a PS3 (note I said those already planning on getting a PS3), make the plunge for their other big upcoming IPs. I still expect GTAIV on PS3 to sell around 4-6m, depending on various factors.
Likewise, GTAIV on X360 should be quite a bit bigger. I know some argue that h3 will make gamers pay (ie, tap out of money), but with Christmas merely 2mo after GTAIV, and H3 being a 4mo-old game, there will be plenty of buyers. Ultimately, GTAIV will do far better on 360 via exclusive content, and the far less restrictive X360 price (hopefully a price drop happens). GTAIV will sell to the casuals that will pick up the X360 later this year (I'd argue that H3 will sell to casuals too, and they'll have their 2nd big IP title to pick up in GTAIV, or even Maden 08).
So I'm still thinking that GTAIV will sell around a 2:1 ratio throughout it's lifetime. This is based on that GTAIV will have a far better tier ratio on the PS3, as it's still the must-have PS3 game this year (even past MGS4), whereas the X360 has a huge slew of other titles, but still, 10m is no weak matter.
IMO, I wouldn't worry about how "the darkness" is going to sell the rest of the year. I'd expect the continued 2:1 ratio to hover around the same mark. If anything changed, I'd expect the 360 version to pull out ahead a bit in the ratio, as the 360 userbase should adopt the game a bit better.
Nevertheless, I do believe that in the USA, GTAIV should do quite a bit better (3:1) in the US for 360, whereas the Euro and J-versions should do near 1:1 in Europe (maybe 1.25 for the 360), and should be 5:1 in Japan in the PS3s favor
Really? I think GTAIV will be the best-selling GTA in Japan. I think it could sell 500k or more between both itenerations).
The only prohibitive factor on GTAIV blowing out the door on SA's 18m PS2/Xbox cume is due to the price question of the PS3/360. Had the PS3 of been far cheaper ($300), I wouldn't doubt that GTAIV could of sold 10m+ on the 360 (as it is now), but still manage near that for the PS3.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
