TheSource, interesting analysis and predictions. What confuses me a little though is your conclusion about the 5% and 10% marketshare boost from a $100 price drop for PS3 and X360 respectively.
I know the PS3 and X360 are moving units at a pretty stable rate of 200.000 (PS3) and 300.000 (X360) units world-wide currently, and the Wii is at almost 1 mill/month on average. Total world-wide next-gen market would therefor be 1,5 mill consoles/month at the moment.
So, in other words after doing the maths, the PS3 currently has roughly 15% marketshare and the X360 has about 20%.
But the 5 and 10% boosts in market share TheSource predicts from a price cut would would give 20% to PS3 and 30% to X360 and - assuming the total market grows accordingly, to about 2 mill/month - translate into approx 400.000 PS3s/month and 600.000 X360s/month, and the Wii would continue selling 1 mill/month (these numbers are "normal season sales", without any Halo3 or other killer-app or holiday effects).
Woh! That would mean doubled sales for both consoles after just a $100 price cut - and that's certainly impossible, isn't it?
TheSource, could you explain your maths and market share predictions in more detail?
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