At this time I think every sane person have realized that the PS3 isn't a mass market product. They will most probably lower the price to $500 soon, but so what? That will only have a marginal effect, and without any killer games oming out for even this upcoming holiday season the PS3 will keep staying on the shelves (and reach around 7 mill through dec31). The big boost will be to X360 at $299 and a much stronger fall to holiday lineup of titles.
Early next year - note, after the holidays - when MGS and FF13 comes out, you believe people will just run out and buy tons of PS3s? No way, I just can't see it happen. In a near perfect scenario 2008 (which would require a couple of really great exclusives that we haven't heard of yet) we might see doubled world-wide sales to 400.000 PS3s per month instead of the 200.000 today, but that's still barely enough for shipping 10 million consoles that year (which has been Sonys own optimistic target for fiscal 2008 btw).
So the magic years would be the 3 years from 2009-2011 to start selling 15 mill consoles yearly for the PS3 to pass 60 million. But the total console market is 30-35 million consoles yearly (yeah it will be bigger than that but that's all thanks to the Wii-effect) so how on earth will the PS3 as the most expensive console steal almost half of that, battling against a X360 with a sweet spot price of $199 and a Wii that's selling like hot cakes to the masses?
Wii is the mass market product, and only an idiot will deny it taking the victory this gen. Wii is set for +100 million by 2011.
X360 will be the prefered product for "traditional gamers" and will have sold 50-60 mill by 2011.
PS3 will be stuck in it's "exclusive" niche, with the high price against it, for the larger part of this gen and will have a very hard time passing 50 mill through 2011.
Existing User Log In
New User Registration
Register for a free account to gain full access to the VGChartz Network and join our thriving community.
