Nintendo quarterly results (Switch 36.87 million)

[Bofferbrauer2]

Farsala said:

zorg1000 said:

My predictions

Japan 20-25m

Americas 40-45m

Europe 25-30m

Other 10-15m

Total 95-115m

Japan- For sure

Americas- I expect 3-5m less, but still plausible.

Europe- If Nintendo isn't price cutting anytime soon, then I don't know how they will get the sales

Other- Wildcard

Switch is already at around 10M in Europe and the sales are accelerating there if you look at the financial results. 25M actually shouldn't be much of a problem anymore.

Granted, a pricecut would do wonders there. In German forums, I always hear people basking about the Switch'es price. Considering you can find almost always a new PS4 for about 200-250€ somewhere in Germany, the Switch is comparatively expensive. On the other hand, that also means that a pricecut for the PS4 is probably less effective there since they for the most part already got the cut. The Lite should already address that problem somewhat, so let's wait how that one goes and have a look at it again next spring.

zorg1000 said:

Farsala said:

3DS did 23.34m Europe+ Other. You have 35-45m Europe + Other. So 3DS is probably less than 20m in Europe.

The current shipment comparison is 3DS at 9.69m and Switch at 13.29m (137%). So that would correlate to 32m LTD Europe+ Other. Of course it will probably do a bit better than that, but 35m is your lowball estimate.

I think the issue is you're adding Europe+Other when Nintendo now seperates the two because of how much Other has grown on Switch.

For example, Nintendo revealed that at the end of 2018 Asia (excluding Japan) makes up 7% of Switch shipments (2.25m) and only 1.4% for 3DS (1.05m) and has already doubled the lifetime sales of 3DS in that region.

Its safe to say about 20m (maybe more) of that 23.34m comes from Europe.

Plus, the Switch is largely outselling the 3DS in Europe already. Launch year was a bit weaker, but if you compare 2012 3DS vs 2018 Switch, there's almost a 700k gap already in Europe, meaning Switch is leading by about half a Million there already. 3DS peaked in Europe in 2013 with 4.1M sold, while the Switch already sold almost 4.5M times last year and, like I said before, the sales are continuing to go up in Europe.

3DS then dropped of below 3M sales per year in Europe starting 2014. I'm very sure the Switch won't drop of nearly as much in Europe next year, if at all.

In other words, 25M are pretty much guaranteed already with the current trajectory. There needs to be a major disaster for it not to happen.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 01 August 2019