Nintendo quarterly results (Switch 36.87 million)

[The_Liquid_Laser]

Amnesia said:

In every of my scenarios, I never see the Switch passing the PS4 at the end.

I have counted  with a powerfull 4,5 millions for the next Q with the Lite Launch.

It depends on what kind of sales curve you used.  The 3DS and Wii U have similar shaped curves (very front loaded).  The Wii and the Gameboy Advance have a different shaped sales curve.  And then there is the Gameboy, which sales curve is extremely different from the others.  In order to know what kind of sales to model future sales, you need to know what kind of situation the Switch is in, and which past consoles had a similar situation.  That will determine if you think Switch is in "slow mode" right now or if you think sales are going to "fall off a cliff" (or somewhere in between).

I personally think the Switch's sales curve will have a shape most similar to the NES.  (DS is also pretty similar.)  With the NES, Nintendo was making first party games for only one system, and also there were really two groups (Japan and US) with one group largely coming in a lot later than the other.  I see Switch as very similar to this, but in this case the two groups are home and handheld gamers, and I expect the home gamers to come in later in large numbers (although we should start seeing the beginning of it this year).  Run the numbers using proportional sales from the NES, with 1983 NES corresponding to 2017 Switch and see what kind of sales you get.