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Barkley said:
LordLichtenstein said:

I .. actually .. believe .. PS4 has a chance of reaching PS2. If Sony's estimates hold up, PS4 will have shipped 112M LTD by March 2020, leaving it only 43M short of the PS2.

Sony has yet to lower the price of the PS4 to $199, and exclusive games such as Death Stranding, The Last of Us - Part II, Ghost of Tsushima, Dreams and Final Fantasy VII Remake has yet to release - and let us not forget CD Project Red's juggernaut, Cyberpunk 2077, is releasing next year as well. Exciting times ahead.

For comparison this is what other PlayStation consoles shipped after the successor launched:

PS1 - ~29m

PS2 - ~48m

PS3 - 7m

So while the likely 38m it would need to ship after PS5 launches isn't unheard of, I really don't think it can do it. I'll be pleasantly surprised if it manages half of that post-ps5.

A lot of it does depend on the strategy Sony go for I guess.

Yeah, the PS1 and PS2 had legs due to late launches in a significant amount of countries. PS3 didn't have late launches and neither will the PS4.  Sony is also going for profit and until they change my mind with price cuts, I don't think they will surpass 115m-125m sales.