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RolStoppable said:
Analytical skills come in handy. All figures are for the end of the mentioned calendar year (unless noted otherwise) and are shipment figures. Both the 3DS and Switch launched almost exactly at the same time of the year, so launch-aligned comparisons work very well. 3DS LTD 2011 - 15.03m On the surface it looks like the two consoles are performing at the same level, but an important factor is that the 3DS got a substantial price cut to achieve its figure. What a price cut does is shift sales that would have normally occured later down the line into an earlier year. This will be important to remember because it explains why the 3DS dropped off eventually. 3DS LTD 2012 - 29.84m Here we see that Switch has pulled ahead, but it must be noted that the 3DS received a major revision with the 3DS XL which spurred sales. Switch is ahead despite having neither a revision or price cut, so this is a strong indicator for much better momentum. This will be important to remember because it explains why Switch is poised to pull so far ahead of the 3DS in the long run. Let's look at the most recent data to get an idea of the momentum: 3DS LTD March 2013 - 31.09m (+1.25m) Switch did twice as much as the 3DS in the most recent quarter. Now let's take a peek into the future: 3DS LTD 2013 - 42.74m This means that Switch needs to ship only 8.00m units in the next nine months to match the 3DS. However, Nintendo's forecast of 18m for the fiscal year can be extrapolated to 15m for the next nine months. That would put Switch ahead by 7.00m units with a total of 49.74m units. What's worth mentioning here is that the general consensus is that Nintendo's forecast is too low, so the actual gap will most likely be bigger. Switch is bound to cross the 50m mark by the end of this calendar year. Let's look further into the future: 3DS LTD 2014 - 50.41m Just above 50m. Looks like that by the end of the 2019 Switch will already have a one-year-lead over the 3DS. At this point I have to ask what you expect Switch to sell in 2020. Do you expect Switch to follow in the footsteps of the 3DS? And what is your prediction for lifetime sales of Switch? |
I would expect it to sell past the 3DS, just pointing out that to date the Switch isn't *that* far ahead of the 3DS. $250 was always a ridiculous price point for what the 3DS was offering anyway, Nintendo thought they could get away with it because of the 3D screen gimmick, it was always a $199.99 proposition and even that was probably pushing it but they were arrogant in that era and thought any kind of gimmick they threw out there + 3D puppies would be a smash hit. They were wrong.
I think this fiscal year will be the peak sales year for the Switch, then the following year (primarily 2020) will see about even sales, it's 2021 and 2022 that I think are going to see notable declines.
The 2020 lineup lets say is: Animal Crossing, Zelda: BOTW2, Mario 3D 2 (EAD Tokyo), and Bayonetta 3 amongst other lesser games.
2021 lineup then is what? Pokemon 3rd title, ok, but at this point you've already released two major Pokemon titles on the system, the 3rd pass at it likely doesn't yield big returns in terms of hardware boost. Metroid? OK, not really ever a big seller. More Mario or Zelda? You're kinda hitting up against diminishing returns there as there's so much Mario/Zelda content on the system by this time.
2022 is even more problematic.
The core problem I think is that you need really about 15-16 system selling IP to carry a platform through a really successful 5-6 year cycle and Nintendo has about 8 (2D Mario, 3D Mario, Mario Kart, Zelda, Pokemon, Smash Bros., Splatoon, Animal Crossing) and by about year 4 you've really already used all of these once and in some cases more than once. 8 is nothing to scoff at for a regular publisher, but Nintendo has much more burden on their shoulders than a regular publisher. You have B-tier sellers below that like Kirby, Yoshi, Fire Emblem, but they're not really selling mass amounts of hardware.
That's where I think for Nintendo's case, a strict 1980s style 5-6 year product cycle doesn't really make sense.
I think probably what would make more sense is a phased type of transition that is more gradual and not so sudden, ie: "Switch 2" launches in March/April 2021 (4 years in), but there are still many, maybe even a majority of Nintendo published titles that work on both the OG Switch and the new generation Switch.
Or the mid-gen major refresh approach. Both would help mitigate the problem of the console down cycle that hits Nintendo particularly hard and it's something that is a bigger problem when you only have one hardware line to carry the company with.
