Upgraded Switch model announced: Same price, battery life of 4.5 to 9 hours - Launches in August (Americas, Japan) and September (Others)

[PAOerfulone]

Soundwave said:

What you're not really factoring in to that is 3DS sales were pretty piss poor by year 4/5. Nintendo's been able to skirt that issue usually by having two hardware systems so that when one is in a down cycle like that they at least have some sales coming from elsewhere. 

I don't think Nintendo is cool with having low sales like that towards the end of the life cycle especially if Switch is basically their only system. 

6 year cycles are stupid for Nintendo, especially when they basically use up most of their AAA IP by year 3 ... so you have 3 years of basically sequels that aren't going to bring in huge new waves of audiences because the predacessor already did that (guess what ... BOTW2 won't sell as many systems as BOTW did in part because BOTW is so successful at selling and bringing in people who would be interested in a game like that). 

And what were the Wii U's sales during that the 3DS' 4th and 5th years, if I may ask? Even when the Switch starts to decline (as they naturally will), it's baseline and sales will be considerably above what the 3DS was when it started to drop. I think Nintendo will be fine. They won't be so quick to press the panic (Switch 2) button now or at any point before it's ready.

Much like Curl already touched on, the Switch is not like prior Nintendo systems. It's broken multiple records already and is starting to outpace the Wii U and 3DS combined, all before a price cut or hardware revision has been released. And you left out the negative aspect of supporting two hardware systems. They had to divide their 1st party development and resources between them. Which has usually led to one system getting good support while the other dries up.

When Nintendo began preparing and shifting gears towards the 3DS in 2010 and 2011, they pretty much left the Wii for dead in the process. Then, when they started prioritizing the Wii U in 2013 and early 2014, the 3DS paid the price with a slower release schedule in 2014 and 2015. Then when they shifted focus back to the 3DS once they saw the Wii U was a lost cause in late 2014 and 2015, that was when the Wii U died. 

Now that the Switch is the one system they're developing for moving forward, that problem going to be addressed emphatically. Even if they will have released most of their major 1st party franchises by the end of the year, the Switch will still have a consistent release schedule to keep the games and releases, from established franchises, new IPs, (Astral Chain, Daemon X Machina), and franchises still not on the Switch yet (Bayonetta, SMT, Metroid, Tomodachi) flowing and sales stay consistent. Like I was saying in a past thread about how PS5/Scarlett wouldn't effect Switch sales - The Switch is now starting to reach the point in its life span where it is now going to start selling to the mainstream audience that would wait for a video game system to get a price cut and a healthy library before jumping on board, which is what is now starting to happen.

In years 1 & 2, the Switch was selling primarily to the Nintendo diehards who are loyal to the brand. Now that they're all on board, Nintendo is shifting gears with its targeting and marketing. (Guess what... BOTW2 doesn't need to sell as many systems as BOTW did because at that point, the Switch will be selling largely off of the library it has already built in addition to being at a much lower price point than it was at launch.)

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As for the point of how every Nintendo post SNES, with the exception of the DS, having problems selling after year 3. That has in large part to do with problems and issues with the systems themselves.

N64 - Game development and support outside of Nintendo and Rare stopped due to the limitations and costs of cartridge development back then, causing every major 3rd party developer that was on the NES/SNES to jump to the PS1. (COUGH*FinalFantasyVII*COUGH)

GCN - The mini-disk format limited development and memory, no built in wi-fi support at a time where online play was emerging, 1st party games took a noticeable drop in quality and appeal from the N64 (Mario 64 > Mario Sunshine; Ocarina of Time > Wind Waker (and the backlash that came with it); Star Fox 64 > The Legend of Star Fox and Star Fox Assault), it looked very "kiddie" compared to its "cool" competition (COUGH*PurpleLunchbox*COUGH), Nintendo blew their load to early with the price by dropping it to $99 by September 2003, (not even 2 years old yet), which they did in large part due to competing directly with the greatest selling video game system of all time, the PS2, that was just better in single aspect except graphics... and even THEN that wasn't a selling point, because if you wanted a PS2 with better graphics, you could just get the Xbox. The GameCube had next to nothing going for it. It was the Smash Bros. Melee and Metroid Prime machine.

Wii - The appeal and wow factor of motion controls started dying off quickly after 2009 once fans and developers realized it was just a gimmick instead of a natural progression. Support and development for the HD twins ramping up which reduced the Wii's support to nothing more than shovelware and motion gimmick games outside of Nintendo's 1st party offerings. As the 7th gen progressed and we got to see more and more of what the 360 and PS3 could do and with no legitimate counterpoint (like portability), everyone quickly began to realize just how horribly outdated the Wii was from a technical and hardware standpoint. Piss-poor and pathetic online play for almost every game that tried it outside of Mario Kart Wii. By late gen, the casual audience that bulked the Wii's early sales left in droves for smartphones and mobile gaming, and they haven't been back since. 

3DS - The gimmick of the system was completely worthless and unappealing. That, along with a poor launch were the reasons why Nintendo cut the price by a whopping $80 just 5 months after it launched. While this helped sales pick up tremendously, especially once the games started kicking in, this also caused the 3DS to peak early. It's best selling years were years 3, 2, and 1, in that order. And even after the price cut, the hardware was still underwhelming and unappealing thanks to a pointless gimmick. Add those points onto a booming smartphone/mobile game market that greatly evaporated the dedicated handheld market, and you have a system that was fighting a losing battle from the start.

Wii U - I could be here all night describing what was wrong with THIS one. 

Now let's look at the Switch:

It has all the 1st party support that used to go to 2 separate Nintendo systems, in addition to the handheld 3rd party support the GBA, DS, and 3DS enjoyed. It's gimmick is actually interesting and appealing, unlike the 3DS, its cartridge development is justified and getting Japanese 3rd party support that's actually worth a damn, unlike the N64, 1st party offerings are better than ever and it doesn't have a "kiddie" label attached to it, unlike the GameCube, AND it is a perfectly justifiable reason as to why it's not as powerful as Sony and Microsoft's systems, it gets western 3rd party support that's actually worth a damn, AND its gimmick has long lasting appeal that feels like a natural evolution/progression of gaming and won't fade into obscurity, unlike the Wii.  

Bottom line: Every Nintendo system since the SNES, outside of the DS (and Game Boy Color), struggled and dropped noticeably in sales after the 3rd year for many reasons, but mostly because the systems themselves, from hardware and technical viewpoints, were either mediocre (N64, GCN, Wii) or just plain sucked (3DS, Wii U). The Switch is actually the first console SINCE the SNES where the system itself is just as great as the games it has. Certainly far above what the N64 through Wii U were and above what the 3DS was. Ironically enough, the only other system Nintendo has released between the SNES and Switch where the hardware was probably just as great as the software... was the DS... the best selling Nintendo system ever. Yeah, I'm pretty sure the Switch will do great and reach heights far above what the 3DS ever hoped to achieve, assuming Nintendo isn't stupid enough to cut its life short.

Last edited by PAOerfulone - on 18 July 2019