By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close
Soundwave on 17 July 2019
Edit Thread
Pyro as Bill said:
Soundwave said:

It's a Nintendo system, that means it largely has to sell off the back of about 10 major IP. That's kind of how it goes. The problem with this set up is it doesn't allign with a 5-6 year product cycle which was intended for the NES/SNES (which had 100% 3rd party backing so Nintendo didn't have to carry the whole damn system on their shoulders). 

The issue with the current Nintendo setup is by about year 3 ... most of their franchises, they've already used on the system, and looking at the Switch this is true also -- 3D Mario, 3D Zelda, 2D Mario + Mario Maker, Pokemon x2, Smash Bros, Mario Kart, Splatoon, Fire Emblem, even Animal Crossing will launch in March. 

So sure you can release even a BOTW2 in 2020 say, but it's not going to sell systems like some new IP would, because by that point so many people who would buy a system for a Zelda game already own the Switch because the original BOTW already gave them more than enough reason to jump in. The main audience for a BOTW2 are going to be BOTW fans ... who already own the system by 2020. 

The 5-6 year cycle made sense when you had the NES/SNES and Nintendo didn't have to push so hard and had a lot more help from developers. 

But post NES-SNES ... look at every Nintendo system basically outside of the DS, every one (not just Wii) has very sizable declines after the 3rd full year on market. "Make more Mario and Zelda and Pokemon games" isn't really the answer either because you just run up against a wall of basically selling to the same audience that already has a Switch by that point. 

To build a userbase, Nintendo has to expend so many of their top IP, because they don't get a lot of dev support. So by year 3 they've basically used most of their top end IP on the system, and those games are usually great and bring in a lot of the people who want that experience, but the downside is you're kind out of killer bullets about half way through a 6 year cycle. 

I think this is kind of their fundamental problem that they've never really solved since the SNES ... they have an incredible IP catalog, but on its own it's really only enough to power high sales for about 3 years before notable decline starts to creep in. The DS is the only post-SNES system they've been able to release that really bypassed that issue but it had a lot of things going for it that really can't be repeated. 

Assuming you're 100% correct, how would a 'Pro' help?

There's little doubt Pro/X models helped the XBox One and PS4 show unusually strong legs in the back half of their product cycle. 

To be honest, Sony/MS don't really even need a Pro model, they have enough developer support that they're still getting huge releases virtually every month even deep into year 5/6/7 without having to do anything. 

It's a concept that honestly probably works best for Nintendo that doesn't have the above luxury. Nintendo systems need a "Pro" mid-gen boost more than Sony or MS do. 

The 5-6 year product cycle for Nintendo systems made sense for the time era it was invented for -- the 80s/90s where the NES and SNES had 100% dev support, but it really has not worked well for any Nintendo system outside of the DS since. No system since DS aside has had really a rich, full product cycle without basically crawling to the finish line half dead. 

Which even then was kinda ok when you had two hardware lines, but having just one is going to be problematic if sales start to slow in years 4 and especially 5/6 where it could get ugly. 

Last edited by Soundwave - on 17 July 2019