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Cerebralbore101 on 17 July 2019
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Soundwave said:
PAOerfulone said:

Eh, I'll stick with my original launch model for now and may upgrade when the time and price is right.

Also, to the people who are thinking Switch 2 will launch in before 2023...

Let's break it down.

The 3DS had 6 full years on the market before the Switch came out (because the Switch is a successor to the 3DS as well, no matter what Nintendo says.) And right now, the Switch is outpacing the 3DS in sales and that pace is only going to get bigger and bigger. Eventually, the Switch will blow the 3DS out of the water in lifetime sales. Whatever the 3DS' final total ends up being, add 20 million to it and that's the MINIMUM of what the Switch will sell in its lifetime. Why would Nintendo make the extremely stupid and boneheaded decision to cut the Switch's life cycle short when it has far stronger sales momentum and software support than the 3DS ever had? March 2023 should be the absolute earliest Switch 2 will launch, since the would be a full 6 year cycle for Switch 1. Anything earlier than that is just ludicrous.

What you're not really factoring in to that is 3DS sales were pretty piss poor by year 4/5. Nintendo's been able to skirt that issue usually by having two hardware systems so that when one is in a down cycle like that they at least have some sales coming from elsewhere. 

I don't think Nintendo is cool with having low sales like that towards the end of the life cycle especially if Switch is basically their only system. 

6 year cycles are stupid for Nintendo, especially when they basically use up most of their AAA IP by year 3 ... so you have 3 years of basically sequels that aren't going to bring in huge new waves of audiences because the predacessor already did that (guess what ... BOTW2 won't sell as many systems as BOTW did in part because BOTW is so successful at selling and bringing in people who would be interested in a game like that). 

Nintendo spent 2014 and 2015 supporting the Wii U instead of the 3DS. If you look at 2014, and 2015 3DS only got remakes from Nintendo, and no original games. That's why sales were lower than previous years for 3DS. Switch won't have this problem though, because Nintendo isn't going to suddenly abandon Switch in 2020, and 2021 for some new handheld, or console.