This weekend's Domestic Box Office will decide who gets to wear the box office crown: will it be Green Zoe Saldana...or Blue Zoe Saldana? I asked Doctor Strange, but he said it won't happen if he tells me.
So here's the target: 4.5 million for the Post-Credits Cut in the Domestic Box Office this weekend. Since Endgame has recently passed the important milestone of topping Avatar's initial box office run, the re-release doesn't have to equal Avatar's to sit upon the Iron Throne. Wait. GoT didn't end on a high note, but Phase 3 did. Okay, the Thanos Chair.
Avatar the Extended Cut only made 4 million domestic in its first weekend. I get the 4.5 million to allow for some cannibalizing of the Theatrical Cut, plus shorter legs. I don't expect the Theatrical Cut to completely crater, and if it does, we're likely looking at the Post-Credits Cut smashing the 4.5 million target. Internationally, Avatar did better a lot better but Endgame has a few advantages. First, it's been confirmed that it'll open in the UK and Avatar did not. The UK is a sizable market, so even if the Post-Credits Cut gets a limited international release (and they're on record saying it's going to be a wide international release), Endgame may have a larger potential audience to work with. Second, the movie is still relatively fresh, whereas Avatar had months upon months to fade from the public mind. Third: Avatar didn't have a hype machine trying to top itself, but Endgame has some big names trying to motivate people to choose a new champion. Having a target to beat motivates people to reach for it, and Disney could very well buy up the remainder no matter how this plays out.
The Domestic haul will be the litmus test to measure interest, however. The Domestic:International split should be roughly the same ratio and will probably be just as front-loaded. If it fails to hit 3 million, that means the audience probably has had its fill and it'll probably fade away in the final stretch, extra markets be damned. There's some wiggle room in the 3-4.5 million range because Endgame doesn't need to do as well. If it hits the target, that's a powerful indicator before the international records confirm it.
Re-releases, even for titans such as Gone With the Hand, tend to whimper in the box office though. Avatar is among the most successful, so the bar may actually be fantastically higher than it seems. It could be said that the odds are 14 000 605 to 1, but it sure feels like this could be the one.
And we should know on Sunday.
Can anyone photoshop a Zoe Saldana arm wrestling herself? Gold star if one is green and the other blue.
