May NPD 2019

[Bofferbrauer2]

Shadow1980 said:

Bofferbrauer2 said:

Really love your charts, thanks for bringing them every time!

Do you also happen to have a Switch vs Wii chart by any chance?

I think I do. Let me check...

I have this, which also includes the N64, GC, and Wii U:

The Switch is still trailing the Wii by a considerable amount, but at the same time it's also far outpacing the N64, GC, and especially Wii U by a significant quantity. As home consoles go, it's Nintendo's second-biggest showing in the U.S. for the past five generations and is so far performing on par with the PS4 (and for Year 3 it's actually outpacing the PS4), which means it's only being clearly beaten by the PS2 & Wii. If it continues to experience at least 20% YoY growth on average for the remainder of the year and gets a big boost from Pokemon S&S, it ought to sell over 7 million units this year alone, far more than the 5.1M the PS4 sold in 2016. The last time a home console sold over 7M units in the U.S. in a single year was the 360 in 2011, and if the Switch does pass that milestone it will be only the sixth time on record a home console has done this (based on shipment data, the NES might have also accomplished this on two or three occasions). If I had to make a guess, the Switch will optimistically sell around 37.5M units, ±1.5M, which assumes 7M+ this year, only a modest 10% drop next year, a ~20% drop in 2021 and 2022, and the Switch's next-gen replacement coming no earlier than Q4 2023. Assuming my estimate of 35M the other day for the PS4 comes true, here's what the all-time Top 5 rankings in the U.S. could look like by time the Switch is discontinued:

PS2: 46.7M
360: 43.2M
Wii: 41.8M
Switch: 37.5M
PS4: 35M

Since I expect a high likelihood of the PS vs. Xbox race being much closer next generation, I don't expect either the PS5 or Scarlett to sell over 35M units individually in the U.S., though I do think they'll end up around 65M together.

Wow at those upcoming Wii December sales! But the rest of the year was already foreshadowing what to come: The baseline dropped a lot compared to the previous years, and it looks like Switch has a shot at surpassing the Wii in July and August, and most probably will surpass it in November.

And I would never have guessed that the N64 would have won the first holiday season against Switch and Wii...