May NPD 2019

[Bofferbrauer2]

Shadow1980 said:

More charts!

The PS4 continues to enjoy a LTD surplus of over 8M units compared to the PS3. While the PS4 has had a much larger YoY decline in year-to-date sales compared to what the PS3 did in 2012 (-32.9% vs. -16%) and the PS4 has overall sold less so far this year than the PS3 did in the Jan.-May period of 2012 (1189k vs. 1019k), the total numerical difference is not massive, and was mostly due to February and March. The PS4 actually had a slight edge for May. Unless sales this holiday experience a catastrophic drop-off larger than the declines seen so far (-24% for Q1; the declines were much larger for April & May because of God of War's effect on sales last year), the PS3 should have a better 2019 than the PS3's 2012. If it can maintain a surplus of at least 8M for the remainder of its life, the PS4 should end with a lifetime tally of at least 35M (it should reach 30M by October).

Meanwhile, the XBO's deficit against the 360 continues to grow. The 360 was still doing well in 2011 (its fifth year), and would not start to decline until 2012, so the XBO is at an additional disadvantage due to a shorter overall primary lifespan. Because of the XBO's ever-growing deficit against the 360, the combined net surplus the PS4 & XBO have against the PS3 & 360 continues to decline, and has now dipped below 6 million units, it will likely dip below 4 million by year's end. It will almost certainly evaporate entirely, and I currently project that combined PS4 + XBO sales will end at around 67-68M, short of the combined 70M the PS3 & 360 sold. This does not necessarily mean the market for conventional consoles has shrunk, and we have to keep in mind that the 360 was the longest-lived console in terms of gap between its launch and the launch of its replacement (8 years, vs. 7 years for the PS4, XBO, and PS3). The PS4 & XBO's combined annual sales were over 9M units every year from 2014 to 2018, a streak that PS & Xbox weren't able to accomplish in prior generations, and it was a very strong 5-year period in general, about identical to the 2007-2012 period for PS3+360 sales and well ahead of the 2001-2005 period for PS2+OXbox sales.

Really love your charts, thanks for bringing them every time!

Do you also happen to have a Switch vs Wii chart by any chance?