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colafitte on 23 April 2019
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Mbolibombo said:
colafitte said:

Nintendo themselves said they expect Switch shipping exactly 17'0M units this FY. That's not something i invented, and they said that just after announcing Q3 numbers, so i don't expect Nintendo suddenly changing that much their expectations for the last quarter of the FY, and sales to consumers seems to confirm that number, because VGC is already showing that growth in JP and US, and still the total sales to consumers are what they are.

I already explained why Switch sales to consumers can be so high and shipments not that much. In fact, it's perfectly reasonable what is happening, but ey, we'll see it when Nintendo confirm the numbers in a few days if you don't want to accept what i'm saying.

What a total non answer to what I said.. but whatever =)

Nintendo said 17M is the new forecast in their latest fiscal. They also said 20M was to be expected just 3 months prior to that, things change based on performance. And based on the performance of the Switch this quarter I do believe that forecast will be surpassed with 0.5-1M units.

Not rocketscience, it has nothing to do with me not accepting what you said you are very welcome to share your thoughts and while they are well thought out and I agree with some of it. I just dont fully agree with what you are saying.

Mmm, you asked me "What deems this to be expected though?", and i answered the only fact that can be expected, that Nintendo themselves said they expect to ship 17'0M for FY, so 2'5M for Q4. It's the only answer i can give you, so i don't really understand your point here. I even explained already multiple times why we should accept that number, i really can't say anything more without repeating myself. And no, they said 20M at the beggining of the FY. It's not the same as expecting something for the next quarter. Probably the sum of units to be shipped by Q4 was already established by the moment they said what to expect for FY.

Like i said, despite VGC showing that huge growth that you mention in JP and in USA, the total units sold to consumers are what they are, around 33'0M by the end of March. So do you really expect that Switch has around 36M shipped by that time??, is VGC tracking incorrectly according to you then? because that's what you're saying.

I already said there is a possibility VGC is tracking too low Switch (implying that maybe there will be more units shipped, like maybe 500k more), but that's not my main prediction. It's a reasonable possibility to me, but nothing else. If i have to bet money i will bet what i said. Of course your opinion is perfectly fine, but you have to consider that your main reason as to why Switch will ship more (because that growth in JP and US) has already been acknowledged by VGC in their tracking. That's all.