Global Hardware 16 March 2019

[zorg1000]

DonFerrari said:

zorg1000 said:

Did you not read my post? I have Last of Us in it, even if you add in a 2nd of those 3 titles it doesnt change anything.

Q2-Q4 2018 had God of War, Detroit, Spider Man, Red Dead, Call of Duty, Battlefield, Assassin's Creed, Fallout 76, Spyro, Tomb Raider, Hitman, Just Cause, Soul Calibur, Darksiders, FIFA, Madden & NBA as moderate-major releases.

Q2-Q4 2019 lineup will likely look something like Days Gone, Last of Us 2, Ghost of Tsushima, Mortal Kombat, Rage 2, Crash Racing, Doom, Star Wars, Call of Duty, Watch Dogs, Borderlands 3, Wolfenstein, Control, Shenmue, FIFA, Madden & NBA as moderate-major releases.

The lineups essentially cancel each other out just like Q1 2018 vs Q1 2019 cancelled each other out and the age of the system comes into play so a similar decline as we have seen is to be expected.

16 million would be an ~11% decline, the exact same as last year, 15-20% decline is far more likely. Also that's a 2 million decline and it's already down ~680k YoY in only 2.5 months.

I haven't seem TLOU in your previous post, if it was there my bad I missed. I would say this year have a small leg up as TLOU as exclusive is much more expected than RDR2 on PS4.

Using VGC before shipment correction to predict the YOY down will only lead us to miss projections.

I doubt that TLOU will be bigger than RDR2 on PS4. RDR2 did 23 million in 2 months, at least 15 million of that was from PS4. TLOU did 17 million in 5 years on PS3+PS4. TLOU2 should sell more than 10 million this year if it releases in Sept/Oct but still much less than RDR2.

The problem you're making though is comparing titles in isolation when you need to be comparing the overall lineup over the year and it doesnt look like either will have any notable advantage.

Sure  Official numbers from Sony will give us a better picture but we have NPD+Media Create which have PS4 down by ~450k in Jan+Feb and there is no reason at all to not expect Europe & RotW to be down as well.