Global Hardware 16 March 2019

[zorg1000]

DonFerrari said:

zorg1000 said:

The YoY decline will continue at a similar rate in Q2. Days Gone has the potential to be a solid system seller but I doubt it comes close to what God of War did last April. May has Rage 2 & Crash Racing in June vs Detroit & The Crew 2 so expect those those months to be down as well.

What big games are confirmed for the 2nd half of the year? The annual sports and Call of Duty are coming but their console moving ability gets smaller each year as these will be the 7th entry of those titles.

Some safe bets are Doom 2 from Bethesda vs Fallout 76 last year, Borderlands 3 from Take-Two vs Red Dead 2 last year, Watch Dogs from Ubisoft vs Assassin's Creed last year, Star Wars from EA vs Battlefield V last year, Last of Us 2 from Sony vs Spiderman last year.

Let's say it's a tie overall when it comes to big games in the 2nd half of the year, that likely means a notable decline as it's harder for titles to sell consoles when you get late into a consoles cycle.

15 million for PS4 requires a ~17% YoY decline and 20m for Switch requires a ~22% increase which shouldn't be too hard to imagine since PS4 is currently down by over 20% and Switch up by about 28%.

Are we going to assume none of the 3 most expected games for PS4 won't release this year? TLOU, Death Stranding and Ghost of Tsushijima.

I expect PS4 to be about 16M and Switch 19M.

Did you not read my post? I have Last of Us in it, even if you add in a 2nd of those 3 titles it doesnt change anything.

Q2-Q4 2018 had God of War, Detroit, Spider Man, Red Dead, Call of Duty, Battlefield, Assassin's Creed, Fallout 76, Spyro, Tomb Raider, Hitman, Just Cause, Soul Calibur, Darksiders, FIFA, Madden & NBA as moderate-major releases.

Q2-Q4 2019 lineup will likely look something like Days Gone, Last of Us 2, Ghost of Tsushima, Mortal Kombat, Rage 2, Crash Racing, Doom, Star Wars, Call of Duty, Watch Dogs, Borderlands 3, Wolfenstein, Control, Shenmue, FIFA, Madden & NBA as moderate-major releases.

The lineups essentially cancel each other out just like Q1 2018 vs Q1 2019 cancelled each other out and the age of the system comes into play so a similar decline as we have seen is to be expected.

16 million would be an ~11% decline, the exact same as last year, 15-20% decline is far more likely. Also that's a 2 million decline and it's already down ~680k YoY in only 2.5 months.