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colafitte on 30 March 2019
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zorg1000 said:
colafitte said:

In respect of PS4 i was talking from memory, so maybe i wasn't completely accurate indeed.... But i was referring to the period that Sony considers "Holiday season", around 20 Nov-31 dec.

As for Switch, i must admit is surpassing my expectations as right now. If i remember correctly I expected around 17'5-18'0M in 2019 back in January, so maybe it can do better. But i remind to myself that it has grown a lot mostly this year thanks to Japan, and that Switch, due to a lot of stock left because of Q3 shipments has had a lot of deals everywhere that helped a lot of the sales recently, despite no new big games. That why i want to see what Switch does starting the new fiscal year. So yes, Switch now seems to me more capable to do 18'5-19'0M in 2019 which will be amazingly good, but I will stick to my 17'5-18'0M prediction yet.

And PS4, is more than probable it is going to receive a discount this year or have constant good deals through the year that will help soften the downward trend of sales this year. I don't think it will remain -20% YOY all the year until holiday season. That's why i expect PS4 doing around 15-16M in 2019.

Both consoles are going to do amazingly well this year, respecting their own circunstances.

Its grown alot in the US as well, Jan & Feb were both up 30% on a weekly average. Also what do you mean alot of deals everywhere? It has yet to drop below MSRP. They had a couple added value bundles but that's pretty normal to start happening when a console is 2 years old, it has little to do with shipments.

Why are your projections for PS4 factoring in a price cut but they seem to be ignoring a price cut or revision for Switch?

There were some deals in various part of the world, while PS4 only is having some in Japan. That was my point but i can't give you the details now, because again i was talking from memory of what happened in Jan and Feb. And it has to do with shipments, not only in this case with Switch but with every console because when there's more stock left than necessary you sell those with some deals to take advantage of that stock left. In this case, it's obvious Switch had a lot left after Q3 and if they want to reach that 17'5M shipment for fiscal year it's more than obvious why.

As for factoring a price cut for PS4 and not for Switch, it's because the more Switch sells, the less i think Nintendo is going to do a price cut. That's good news (for Nintendo as a company of course), not a bad one. As for a revision, until it's officialy announced i won't base predictions on rumors. If they happen eventually i will adapt, but not before. Too much rumors in the past that never became true...