Brexit

[Bofferbrauer2]

fatslob-:O said:

Bofferbrauer2 said:

@bolded: That's the Brexiteers tactic, not understanding that the EU doesn't just stand for an economic union, but also for common values and standards. Hence why they can't fathom why the EU is willing to take an economic hit instead of relenting on their demands. But Ireland won't pull out. Besides that wouldn't remove the border with the UK anytime soon. And going by Brexit, at the time the UK Parliament finally would have agreed on opening the border to ireland, both Northern Ireland and Scotland would have long left the Union. Seriously they can't seem to stop bickering even if their Life was on the line.

Again, the EU doesn't share the same opinion as you do ... 

Hmm, I wonder what Ireland values more. The EU's single market or honoring the Good Friday Agreement. They must pick one and choose because they can't have both in a no-deal Brexit ...  

If the EU are truly interested in solidarity then they must be failing Ireland very hard in that regard as they won't guarantee them no hard Irish border ... 

It means a hard border for both sides. There's no cop-out for the UK on that one. No, not even with a 0% import tax. And a hard border doesn't mean fortifications. The UK will be obliged to a hard border, too. Hence why I mentioned the bickering in Parliament, by the time they are done bickering and came to an agreement with Ireland Northern Ireland will long have left the UK.

Also, if the UK would really have valued solidarity, they wouldn't have voted to leave the EU in the first place. They have been failing the Irish with it an cause all this mess for them Stop trying to put the blame away from the Brexiteers, without Brexit this wouldn't even have become a problem.

Bofferbrauer2 said:

@Italic: Plenty, and just because of Brexit. A recent poll showed that the Nationalists would win over 60% of the popular vote now as also the NI economy is heavily dependent on the open border to Ireland. A hard brexit is a death sentence for almost half the economy there. Also, over 50% want a poll if there's no deal. Just quoting some passages so you'll see why Brexit is so much of a dealbreaker for Northern ireland:

"Over half (52%) said they would vote for a united Ireland after Brexit, with 39% wishing to stay part of the UK.

In the event of Brexit with a hard border, 56% favoured a united Ireland, with 40% choosing to stay in the UK.

Should the UK somehow remain in the EU, the poll found that more than half (52%) would want to stay in the UK, with just 35% supporting a united Ireland."

So as you can see, Brexit is the reason why Northern Ireland is swinging into leaving the Union. And that goes for all, Nationalists, Unionists and those who remain neutral between the 2. To quote again:

"Only around three quarters (73%) of those from a nationalist background said they would support a united Ireland if Brexit was avoided - compared to 94% wanting to leave the UK after Brexit.

Some 59% of those who didn't consider themselves unionist or nationalist supported a united Ireland after Brexit, but this dropped to 23% if Brexit was avoided."

Oh, and the Irish are in already, over 73% want a reunited Republic of Ireland.

Even though this comes from a DUP member, he still raises some concerns of validity of the polling data and holy shit did they under sampled leave by 2.5x and there were more Alliance voters sampled than both unionist parties combined! 

LMAO, holy shitsicles this is worse data than the time during when operators collected data in the rust belt states in the 2016 US elections ... 

A hard brexit is a deal breaker for the nationalists but it doesn't appear to be a deal breaker among the unionists and again you'll be disappointed to find out that there aren't many moderates among the DUP, if there is any at that ... 

Well, I guess we're gonna see in 2 months when the election comes, I guess. Just don't be surprised if the mood swings against the DUP if there was a hard Brexit in between.

Bofferbrauer2 said: 

About the rest: You are aware that the support for the Unionists is shrinking for decades, right? In the 70's Unionist parties claimed over 70% of the vote, but they were sliding under 50% in the last election. And Brexit certainly erodes even more of their voter base, as shown above. Like they said in the videos in the previous post, nationalist Catholics are outgrowing the unionist Protestants and surpassing them in more and more parts of NI.

Of course, that's all with a hard Brexit incoming. With a last minute Brexit deal with the EU I'm fairly sure the DUP could continue their reign, if barely, and thus avoid a NIxit and later Scoxit.

It's not happening fast enough in the current relevant timeframe where it really matters the most. As the catholic population develops, their growth rate will consequently decrease thus normalizing things out ... 

The DUP only has to hold out for a couple of more years before either the Good Friday Agreement is inevitably broken while Ireland would have to hold out for around a decade in the process of also getting significantly poorer ...

It was always going to be a question of whether or not Ireland can afford a war of attrition against the DUP but ultimately I don't think Ireland is going to hold being outside the single market because if Ireland decides not to police the goods coming in the EU then they'll just threaten them by doing checks on Irish goods as well ... 

I know it's slow, but like I said, Brexit further erodes their voter base. @bolded: Again, the UK also has to get a hard border, no cop-out here possible, that's the WTO rules. If if the UK would be going to lower their tariffs to 0% (and kill of all manufacturing and farming in the UK in the process because imports will be cheaper without the tariffs), those would need to be ratified first (good luck getting that through the parliament first btw, Labour for instance would never allow that to happen), and until then a hard border will be needed.

But I'm done answering to you. What good is it to try showing you all the proofs, signs and everything else if you dismiss them, and common sense if you ignore it. Crash out if you want, but don't be surprised if suddenly you're worse off on your little island and the United Kingdom falls apart because of it. I showed you what will happen, I pointed at everything you would have needed to know, so good luck, you're on your own now.