The issue in this comes with when the games launched. The Wii U was never a success so the fact it sold 4 million with about 14 million sold means logically the sequel should do more with about triple the LT Wii U install base by the time MM2 comes out. On top of that the 3DS arguments make no sense to me. It was a watered down port with features excluded on an inferior handheld that while still sold pretty well, came out near the tail end of the system's lifespan.
Given the success of the Switch and the overall craziness that comes with Switch owners buying games, 10 million to me is a 90% guarantee. The only way it won't is if it gets overshadowed by another Switch game within a month, and given the next major release from Nintendo is likely Fire Emblem in July, I think it's safe to say that this game will easily hit the 10 million mark.
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