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Lucas-Rio said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

VGC has Sun/Moon at 15.17m and Ultra Sun/Moon at 7.15.  That total is 22.32m.  To me that is the ceiling for Sword/Shield.  I think it will do close to that but not more.  That actually puts it just below Gold/Silver, but above all of the other games (except the original).

If you count USM you should count crystal as well for Gold/Silver

But I agree that USM has cut the legs of S/M way too much as it released too ealy, S/M would have done around 18-19 millions witout it.

You may be right, but it wouldn't change my result.  I still think Sword/Shield will sell less than Gold/Silver.  I'm mostly trying to determine a ceiling in case there isn't a third game or equivalent to Sword/Shield.  X/Y didn't have anything like that.