Will Mario Maker 2 become a 10+ million seller?

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RolStoppable said:
No. It's a level editor and will rely on usergenerated content. Most fans of 2D Mario will skip the game because they want professional content AND coherent world building, that's why the included professional levels in Super Mario Maker 2 won't be good enough.

I agree that this is what 2D Mario fans want most.  But I don't think we are going to get that on the Switch.  The next best thing will be Mario Maker 2 and a lot of people will settle for that.  In fact, I think NSMBUD is settling too.  It is worse than Mario Maker.  Most people will see Mario Maker 2 as the true 2D Mario Maker game on the Switch.  

I agree with what you are saying though.  I don't think Mario Maker 2 will sell as well as the Wii's 2D Mario.  It's not going to flop either though.

Mnementh said:

MasonADC said:

It’s 2D Mario, and the first new 2D Mario on Switch. That’s enough said imo

NSMBUD was already released earlier this year and reportedly already outsold it's WiiU counterpart. So 2D Mario is present. Also I'm not sure if Mario Maker is exactly the same niche. It appeals to people that enjoy user-generated content, professional level design and coherent game with themes and all seem to be a bit different (although admittedly there might be overlap between both user-groups). So no, it will not sell 10 million on 2D-Mario account.

That said though, it might be possible for NSMBUD to sell 10M, is sold 5.6M on WiiU, and earlier entries on DS and Wii sold over 20M each and on 3DS over 10 million. It might still be more likely for a complete new NSMB to sell over 10 million, but the port may have a chance to clear it. But not Mario Maker.

Mario Maker will be drawing from two install bases: Wii U and 3DS.  For that reason I am thinking it will sell more like Smash Bros than Splatoon.  Smash Bros did extremely well, because it is getting both Wii U and 3DS fans of Smash Bros.