Brexit

[Bofferbrauer2]

fatslob-:O said:

Bofferbrauer2 said:

1. The backstop was planned for a period of 21 months, until end of 2020 (that's the one in the deal, set up until a definitive solution could be found), not indefinitely. The indefinite one, where the UK parliament would have had the last say on any agreement, got shot down by the EU.

4. Why would they attack Irish customs officers (because that's all that's gonna be needed on the border, no military officers) but not British ones? That makes no sense at all, especially since the Brits leaving the EU is the cause for this mess in the first place. I agree on the streets that got reopened after 1993, they probably will need to be blocked again. But again, making a road impassable doesn't mean militarizing a border. And again, that doesn't void the letter of the GFA.

While we're at it, Ireland leaving the EU wouldn't solve any of these problems, the only thing that does is Northern Ireland becoming part of Ireland again

5. Again, Ireland has every right to do so as long the border doesn't get militarized, Besides, custom checks on both sides are gonna be mandatory after a no-deal Brexit. Or let me quote from another source: " in a no-deal Brexit scenario, the EU and the UK must trade with each other in line with the MFN obligation. The EU would have to treat goods coming from the UK in the same way as any other third-country goods. Likewise, the UK, following a re-negotiation of its Schedules of Concessions and Commitments on goods and a settlement of its regulatory environment with the EU and all other WTO members, would be required to raise duties and conduct border requirements without distinguishing between products originating in the EU or any other nation. Unless and until the UK negotiates new preferential trade agreements with other countries – including the EU – the country will have to trade goods on a MFN basis. As a result, at the land borders with the UK, as well as at EU ports and airports, the EU will apply the same border checks for goods originating in the UK as it does for goods coming from any other non-preferential trade partner. Absent an agreement between the two blocs, goods crossing the North/South Irish border or arriving by sea or air will be subject to EU customs duties, VAT and excise duties, as well as EU rules of origin, EU product safety and quality standards, EU sanitary requirements for live animals and products of animal origin and EU environmental protection and animal welfare rules. By the same token, the UK will have to apply its MFN duties and border controls on goods coming from the EU."

In other words, both the EU and the UK will have to impose and enforce border checks. I already explained that those don't break the GFA several times. And, as you can see, since the UK is also forcing themselves to border checks if they go No-Deal, even if border checks would break the GFA (which, again, it doesn't!), then both would have to break it, not just Ireland. In fact, the UK are already preparing themselves to create a hard border with Ireland. No exception from Articles 21 and 24 either, by the way: "The pivotal non-discrimination obligation enshrined in Article I GATT 1994 therefore casts doubt upon the position of the UK Government and the arguments of some Brexiteers mentioned above. In the event of a hard Brexit, the WTO MFN principle will entail a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Exceptions such as the national security exception under Article XXI or the frontier tariff exception under Article XXIV:3 GATT 1994 will not apply. Unless and until the UK and the EU conclude a preferential trade agreement such as a free trade agreement or a customs union as authorised by Article XXIV, a hard South/North Irish border will remain."

Also, if you're so concerned about smuggling into the EU, how about smuggling into the UK instead? The EU has much more and cheaper goods to send into the UK than what the UK has to offer. In other words, the UK will need to install border checks, too. For instance, smugglers are getting ready to smuggle cigarettes en masse into the UK

1. This does not match up to what Geoffrey Cox claims who's the attorney general ... (basically if the UK does not get a permanent trade deal there is no mechanism to end the backstop) 

4. @Bold You are naive if you truly believe that. Just who the hell do you expect to man those blocked crossing points from being breached with very dangerous weapons such as bombs ? WTH is the point in blocking crossings if you aren't going to guard it ? An EU associate is not kidding when they claim there's going to be a hard Irish border place ... 

5. Customs checks are definitely going to be necessary but you can't be actually serious that Ireland won't need militarized armed guards if they decide to block so many points, right ? 

Hammond's position does not match the government's position so pay no attention to him. As for the Article 21, sure it applies as long as both Ireland and the UK agree to it because the important opening statement of the article starts with "Nothing in this Agreement shall be construed" which means the WTO rules straight up don't apply under these circumstances. Ireland would be breaking the GFA first by raising up a hard border first which is why the UK will wait before coming to claim Northern Ireland to itself forever ... 

The UK isn't concerned about smuggling from the EU when they've had a trade deficit with them for years. In a no deal scenario the UK has a chance to return the favour. IF AND WHEN a border is decided by Ireland that is when smuggling will end on either side but it will also close the path to reunification ... 

I am very much looking forward to the fated day when the EU will turn against Ireland ...  

1. Let me just quote the relevant sentence in your link, which is the very first line: "The UK is “indefinitely committed” to the Irish backstop if it comes into force". If it comes to force, which it only does if there's a deal on it. In a no deal scenario, no backstop either way. But yeah, if there is a deal, then the UK will stay in the trade union anyway, which renders the backstop pretty much moot.

4+5. There are ways to block them, like destroying the road and building a hill instead to make it impassable for vehicles (something that has been done countless times in Luxembourg when they rerouted some streets to go around town and cities instead of straight through them, so that shouldn't be much of a problem to do). They can always be rebuilt after reunification. And since these weapons would be smuggled into te UK and not the other way around, it's the UK who would need stonger security there, not Ireland. In other words, the UK is fucking themselves as there's no good way out for them here. Either the Troubles respark, or Northern Ireland votes to leave the UK, or first the Troubles and then the vote, but in either way a British NI is fucked. And they have to keep NI as close as possible, as a vote in NI will also definitely spur one in Scotland again. So, what will it be? Prison your fellow Scottish and Northern Irish citizen into your country and face the violence of that decision, or let them go, fully knowing that it will cripple the UK.

About Hammond, it doesn't matter if he follows UK government stance or not, as he's just explaining the WTO rules there which the UK are forced to follow.

And about your smuggling, lol. UK with what goods will return that favor? Those blocked in Calais and Rotterdam because border checks are going on forever, delaying production so much that BMW already said they will shut down their Mini production plant for an entire month because the parts will not flow in time anymore to make the production go as it did before Brexit?Almost all UK goods need some parts from factories outside the UK, and on food the UK can only produce about 60% of what it consumes. There's just no way that the UK will turn the tide anytime soon.

Plus, like I said before, if the UK gets caught smuggling you can bet your ass nobody in the entire world would want to trade with you anymore until that practice stops