We already know about Pokemon, Luigi's Mansion 3, and Animal Crossing coming out this year so it can't be any of them. Pikmin 4 is a possibility, but it's niche enough that I don't know if they would consider releasing as something that would 'make everyone happy'. Super Mario Maker 2 seems like the most likely since they never ported the first to the Switch. I wouldn't rule out a 'Majora's Mask' sequel to BotW or 'Super Mario Galaxy 2' to Mario Odyssey. There are some left field possibilities too like a return-to-form Paper Mario, or a new Earthbound.
As to the online game, Star Fox Grandprix seems the most likely, but a Mario Strikers game, F-zero game, or Splatoon spin-off could fit the bill, too.