| PAOerfulone said: I think Nintendo will be on top for the next two years since the PS5 won't likely release until Q4 2020, by then it'll be too little, too late. 2021 though... |
Sounds about right. Even if the PS5 releases in March 2020 the NS should still take the year as I expect that to be its peak year. Or maybe 2019.
Zombie9ers said:
I think Sony is up to something big this year. They're not coming to E3 - so I think they're going to hold their own event to announce PS5. Think they will announce it will launch early next year. At the same time they'll drop the PS4 price to $249 - then have an extended $199 price promotion throughout the holidays. If PS5 is backwards compatible to PS4 games- then I think the PS4 has a good chance of beating the Switch again this year. |
I wouldn't count on a lot of that. Only way the PS4 even hits 16M this year is if there is a permanent drop to $199 around june the latest. Anytime later than that and it won't really do much. The PS4 has zero chance of beating the NS this year.
Well unless nintendo doesn't release a single game on the platform and increases its price to $399......
| jonathanalis said: Great run. But 2019 is switch's. 2020 we will probably have ps5, but not for the entire year. Also, ps4 took 5 years to reach its peak. If switch keep a strong momentum for years (considering it have space to price drops and revisions), it can still outsell ps5 first 2 or 3 years. |
It took it 4 years. But there is a relationship between price, software and time to reach peak year. Basically more expensive hardware takes longer to peak. Like the PS3 before it, the PS4 peaked when it hit that $299 price point. I am guessing for the NS it can either peak at that price point or it needs to hit like $199/$250 or something.
But dropping from $299 to $199 vs $399 to $299 is not as easy as it sounds...... One is a 33% drop and the other is a 25% drop.
| The_Liquid_Laser said: People are already predicting success for the PS5 without knowing a damn thing about it. Reminds me of the talk just before the PS3 launch. On the other hand we already know that the Switch is a successful console that is selling comparably to the PS4. Isn't it more logical prediction that the Switch will have the top spot for the next 4+ years? |
No it is not. Its actually silly to even think that. Cause the next 4+ years means that the switch sells more worldwide till 2023 at least and beyond. By then it will be at least 6yrs old. For that to happen it has to sell at least 18M/yr for the next 4+ years or sony comes with a PS3 level type of F*** up with the PS5 and release it at $599.
The NS is lower priced than what the PS4 was at launch.... it will see its own peak sooner than the PS4 did and it should be selling at a faster rate than the PS4.
