I'm almost positive there will be a price drop because I don't think any gaming platform has gone 3+ years without one; it's just a matter of how much of a drop it will be. If they can sell a dock-less Switch nationwide (instead of just on their website where I think it's at around $245) in preparation for Pokemon and Animal Crossing then I think they can probably get to that $200 mark.
Good point in the fact that the console will 3 years without one. But despite this, like zorg has said, i expect, intead of a full clean price cut, lots of bundles for the important games.
Talking about a dock less Switch for $200 by the end of the year..... that would a resounding success without a doubt. But i think (and that's the reason the version is limited to website) Nintendo is not interested in selling so low. They must get more profits from the $300 full version.
I do think too, that because Switch did not explode as fast in sales in Japan as DS, 3DS or Wii, there still a market in Japan that is going to buy the console when the games they want come, and that's why i feel there still a few millions more in sales at $300.
But your point are convincing too, it very well could happen.