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Amnesia on 07 January 2019
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Supermario28 said:
Amnesia said:

I have added the 2017 Q4 to see the whole curve : it needs to be ~33% higher than the final spot of the blue curve (15,06M --> 20M) by March 30th 2019.

It is already 26% higher by today (8,12M from 6,42M). It is done. I will put half of my money on Nintendo Share, if they confirm 20M the share will explode.

Hi, can I ask you to update this graph with week 48 and 49? maybe even make a thread out of it?

I think it's very interesting to see the gap with last year and the growth in percentage. It's a good way to see if the 20mil are possible for FY 2018 IMO

As of december 8th the growth is ~+27.5%. With NSMBUDX releasing later this week it's going to be very interesting to see what numbers january will bring.

Hi ! I have not really updated it more because I don't trust the last Hardware result here with the Smash week. I think it is pretty difficult to estimate this intensive period but as you wish. If we keep this 1.2M for the switch, sure the 20M are doomed. I would really bet a lot that Switch was much higher than the PS4 for this week even in Europe.
There is a mistake in my prediction that I should stop to do : I consider a constant ratio of 1.10 between the FY2017 and the tracked total sales of VGChartz (15,06/13,68), but this is not a ratio, it is rather a constant gap of ~1,5M, the size of the stores, retailers and warehouse is not growing as the Switch is increasing its sales.

Last edited by Amnesia - on 07 January 2019