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drinkandswim on 07 January 2019
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DonFerrari said:
drinkandswim said:

I definitely don't expect the next Generation to only play the same games as the current gen. If it did I don't think it would find much success. I mean I don't think the regular Xbox One numbers are that great, but they aren't bad considering they have near zero Japanese Market. I don't expect Switch to offer Next Gen gaming, as I said I only expect them to with the Switch Pro (assuming there will be one) be able to play current Gen games at 1080P (docked). I don't think Switch needs to play  PS5/X4 games to be successful because the trade off is portability, but if it can play current gen games (Xbox One/PS4 quality) the trade off will be enough for a second system. I assume most people would want a next gen console and a handheld they can play some games on the go. So that is where my assumption that someone will be the loser in the next Gen and I don't think it will be Sony due to their quality First Party games. A large quantity of gamers will purchase two platforms. PS5/X4 will offer similar experiences, while Switch offers handheld gaming.

So do you expect when PS5/X4 arises that devs and pubs will port other PS4/X1 games to Switch2? Not sure it makes much sense. Sure some games may see that, they may even see a remaster to PS5/X4 with upgraded visuals and together a Switch 2 version with the base quality. But don't expect a great number of games.

I mostly expect next gen to be similar to this. PS5 100+M, X4 40+M (about 33-50% of PS4) and Switch 2 or whatever solution if hybrid to be 60+M.

I think if the demand is there to play some Xbox One/PS4 games on the go (which I think there is) they will. Since porting cost is way less than developing a brand new title. I don't think it will be every game. I also think Switch will get some games built from the ground up since I expect the base will be large enough for Developers to see value. I can definitely see for instance Blizzard/Activision making a ground up Call of Duty for Switch especially since Fortnite is a huge success on Switch so there is a Shooter base there already. For sure you will see Switch to be the ultimate Indy system as many games are even outselling the PC Versions. The key for Nintendo is the Japanese Market. They can easily reach 20 million there alone. The other key is that Switch is a system that can sell multi within a single household. Whereas I agree with the general consensus that Switch isn't a direct competitor to X4/PS5, it still competes for time since you are most likely not playing Switch and a Home Console at the same time. Nintendo's weakest market right now is Europe. In order to expand in Europe they need some AAA third party titles as Nintendo titles alone don't seem to be strongly penetrating that market. I think someone mentioned that they cant see RDR2 being ported to Switch, and I agree I don't see it being ported to the current Switch. I do think with the Switch Pro if it does use the Tegra X2 (which is my guess) that it will be able to play RDR2 maybe at 720P 30FPS (docked). Now whether that is something acceptable for Rockstar and whether the porting cost of RDR2 is worth it to them that is up to them as a developer.