Hiku said:
drinkandswim said:
So you don't think having a valid third Console on the market has anything to do with the decline. You think if Switch wasn't available that PS4 and Xbox One sales wouldn't be higher? Now I never said that PS4 or Xbox One are doing bad. I said they are declining and there is no doubt it has to do with Switch. But you expect to see that impact immediately on Launch? I say you will see it more in 2019 and 2020 then of course next gen is coming and we will see what happens there. That one is tough to predict. Switch hasn't even hit its stride yet and its likely to be the top selling console Globally for 2018 and definitely for 2019. Which is quite a difference from Sony #1 and Microsoft #2 for the last 6 years.
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You said that PS5 and XB2 are in 'big trouble'. For such a strong statement, you'd expect we'd see some notable effect already on PS4 and XBO.
I used the term 'significant' when talking about the sales decline. If Switch wasn't around I'm sure PS4 and XBO would have sold a bit better, but not in a significant way. Just like Switch would have sold a bit better without the PS4 and XBO on the market. But again, not in a significant way.
What do I base that on? Well for starters, not only did PS4 have its record calendar year in 2017, but few consoles ever manage to sell as much as 20m in a year.
It's unrealistic to think it would have sold significantly more, based on nothing.
What would the 2017 chart be on, according to you, if Switch didn't launch that year? And how does that difference amount to 'big trouble'?
And I'm not exactly sure exactly how much PS4 has sold this year so far, but it looks set to meet the 18m fiscal year prediction, or around there. Meaning even in Switch's second year on the market, PS4 looks to sell similarly to their second best year.
I don't see this disastrous omen for PS5 that you spoke of.
You said there is 'no doubt' that this modest decline in 2018, for consoles in their sixth year on the market (most people consider 5 years the average lifetime of a console), has to do with Switch.
And I'd like to know how you reached that conclusion? How is what they're selling this year so dramatically different from how previous console generations did during their fifth year that you'd declare disaster for their next gen consoles?
Have you considered that the market for PS4/XBO and the market for Switch might just be very different? Not only is there the portability aspect of Switch, but it's a system that is constantly excluded from many of the biggest game releases. If you want to play games like Resident Evil 2, Devil May Cry V, Kingdom Hearts 3, etc, you'll probably need a PS4/XBO/PC.
And the problem of making these games work on Switch will just get amplified when PS5/XB2 come out, because those games will get even more demanding than today's games.
If it takes Square Enix 3 years to port Dragon Quest XI to Switch, imagine Final Fantasy 16.
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