I think Pachter's projections regarding Nintendo are always suspect. I honestly don't even believe that he should still be an analyst because of his bias. He thinks of Nintendo more in regards to their "rabid fanboy fanbase" than as a company. It's very personal for him and he always likes to throw the Big N some shade. He sadly has to admit when he's wrong about Nintendo's success and gleefully celebrates their failures with an "I told you so" smirk. At best, this is no better than many of us here at VGC.
In fact, I know there are 30-40 posters here whose projections should be taken far more seriously. But it sure is fun to watch Pachter fail. I think that's the only reason the gaming press keeps him around.