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Sold-through number+Digital should be like this at the end of December.
US = 4.5m (3m last reported number)
Japan and Asians = 2.5m (1.6m last reported number)
Europe and ROTW = 3m (30% higher than the last best selling Nintendo home console game in europe right now)

If Nintendo over-shipped the copies like Odyssey i can see 14-15m shipments like your prediction based on the high sold-through number.