| zorg1000 said: I'm sure Nintendo is going to refrain from price cuts as much as possible but it would still be very, very unlikely to not see a price cut or lower cost revision in its 3rd full fiscal year (April 2019-March 2020). If I recall, @Shadow1980 explained recently that no console has ever gone past the third full fiscal year without a price cut with the majority happening in the 1st or 2nd meaning it would be unprecedented for Switch not to receive either a price cut to the current model or a cheaper revision next year. So to go back to whether or not Switch will pass 3DS, its launch and first 4 full fiscal years were 3.61m 13.53m (price cut) 13.95m (revision) 12.24m (lower cost revision) 8.73m (premium revision) Total-52.06m
3DS needed a price reduction/revision each year to maintain momentum or soften the decline. Switch's first full fiscal year had a 1.5m lead over 3DS, if Switch hits its 2nd full year goal (could very well miss) it will extend that lead by 6 million. With a price cut/revision next year, any potential decline will be pretty minimal so it will once again extend the lead by a few million. At that point it would need a nearly 50% YoY decline (unprecedented) to not continue to extend the lead in the 4th full fiscal year. Here are my rough estimates for Switch's launch and first 4 full fiscal years 2.74m 15.05m 17-20m 15-20m 12-15m Total, 62-73m
By the end of the 4th full fiscal Switch should have an accumulated lead over 3DS by 10-20 million which will be very hard for 3DS to bounce back from. |
Yes I am aware that hardware always sees some sort of price revision within the first 3 years. But nintendo really seems to be against price drops. Hell it took 3 years before it dropped the price of the Wii by $50. They would sooner bundle the system with a game than cut the price, this is just going off how nintendo has always been.
The 3DS was an exception because that needed a price drop to spur sales as it was selling way below expectations. Not the case with the NS. I don't know, I just believe we live in a very different world today than we did at the time a lot f people are drawing their conclusions from. Now revenue generated from an existing user base seems to have taken priority over the raw size of a user base. Even nintendo is now doing the whole online service thing too.
The way I see it, we will see bundles instead of price drops or revisions offering "more power and/or larger batteries/ storage at the same price point" before we start seeing $199 NS in the wild. Unless sales start to drop. And before any of this happens nintendo will also want to release a number of their big IPs at this current price point to see how much of an effect that will have on sales.
I agree with your estimates though... but I dont believe it will have more than one 20M selling year. Especially when you consider that its best shot at having a 20M selling year at probably a reduced price is on or before a year when 2 new consoles would be released. Thats a lot of media attention taken away from the NS.
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