November NPD 2018 Thread

[peachbuggy]

Intrinsic said:

LipeJJ said:

It will be way worse next month if Switch happens to wipe the floor with the other consoles...

Nope. I think everyone and their dog expects the switch to clean house this month. The real debate now is if it does 1.4M, 2M or 2.5M. Most (including myself) even expects the PS4 to do less than 1M. 

peachbuggy said:
Wow! Just waded through this entire thread. So many differing opinions! My take is that come December NPD, it will be enough to change some peoples' even long term Switch sales perceptions and estimates. I wouldn't be surprised at a 2.5m+ December NPD and Smash to break a longstanding individual game sales record. Then, the 20m FY shipped amount will look more attainable. Long term growth will look more attainable and a higher FY shipments forecast for Switch FY 2019 by Nintendo will be more likely. Also, for those saying Nintendo fans buy Nintendo consoles for their 1st party games, therefore all are onboard already, this isn't necessarily the case. Within Nintendo's IP's lay very different individual IP fanbases and these in no way necessarily completely overlap. There are probably more than a few waiting for the next Metroid release for example.

Thats an extreme way to look at it.

They arent all on board already. Point thuuogh is that nintendo has the largest "shared userbse" of the 3 platforms. Better way t look at it is that by the time the NS gets to 40M sold, subsequent releases from the usual staple of nintendo IPs will have less of an impact driving sales forward. This happens to all platforms mind you, its just in to be more serious with the switch.

Unless there are third parties or even nintendo bringing new IPs that are equally big and successful to the platform. Take the PS4 for instance. In addition to its usual staple of continuing franchises there were at least 2+ new AAA IPs released either by sony or a third party every single year. The XB1 didnt have that and as such its sales stagnated.

Just goes to show that games sells hardware.... but how and what those games are are equally important.  

Believe me, Nintendo's IP's have very dedicated, different (and vocal) individual fanbases. You may think it won't make much of a difference but i beg to differ. Plus, there are "new" players joining a consoles' infrastructure all the time, at times making these fanbases bigger. It's also already been addressed here before but so far Nintendo have only really gone after the HC crowd with their strategy/price point. Next year i believe, with Animal Crossing and Pokemon (HH orientated titles), they will begin to go after the HH crowd. So, probably expect a price cut to get nearer mass market HH price point. Then from that time onwards their dream of having multiple owners per household will become more of a possibility, whilst all the while the userbase will be growing to 50m+. So, all in all i don't see Switch market penetration becoming a problem at all at 40m+ userbase.