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Mbolibombo on 15 December 2018
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thismeintiel said:
Nuvendil said:

The Switch sold 1.5 mil last year with no new system seller released in either that month or the preceding one.  You think it will be flat YoY with Smash releasing within the first week of the month?

Despite the fact it just sold 1.35 mil in Novemberr and December is usually much stronger for Nintendo?

Despite the fact it was just up YoY 75% for November?  If it is up by even half that percentage in December YoY, it will beat the PS4.

Last year, December included Cyber Monday, which has reportedly become just as large as BF in the last year or so.  This year does not.  You also have the fact that the Switch actually had deals this BF/CM.  Last year it had none.  That will also shift sales from Dec to Nov.  That's a lot of missing sales that the Switch has to make up for in Dec.  I think Smash can definitely make up for that, but it's not going to easily blow away last year's numbers,  which is why I could see it doing 1.4M-1.6M.

Holiday momentum for Nintendo is real though, CM or not. Nintendo systems are usually x2 over November. I dont expect that much this time around since first off Switch had a huge November and secondly as you already mentioned, because of CM not being a part of December NPD. But something around 1.4-1.5 multiplier should certainly be possible. 1.4-1.6M is lowballing the sales and I'm 100% confident in that. 1.4M is practically flat with November and I dont think that has ever happend with a nintendo system before so I'm sticking with my confidence here =)

But I agree with your reasoning, I just dont fully agree with the outcome of it =)