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colafitte on 15 December 2018
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zorg1000 said:
LTD 21 months
PS4-8.38
XBO-7.66
NSW-8.73
3DS-6.40

Wow, those numbers prove to me that PS4+XBO are more impressive than what Switch is doing, or that Switch is not that impressive as you could think. Let me explain:

1. PS4 and XBO launched at the same time at way higher prices, fighting for the same kind of cosumer (COD, NBA2K, FIFA, BF, .....)

2. XBO had to fight against its own annoucement disaster.

3. Both had to fight too against their own previous consoles because during 2014, a lot of games still had a lot of sales on X360 and PS3.

4. I can only think about one new game with huge sales and 90+ metacritic in that period of time in XBO and PS4, being The Witcher III. And probably GTA V and TLOU Remastered were the best games on PS4 prior to that, both games from the previous gen.

5. Meanwhile, Switch probably had the best 12, 18, 21 first months of a new console ever, launching with a GOTY game, a Mario Kart game, a Super Mario 3D game, a huge recent new IP in Splatoon 2, all in a period of less than 9 months, and in the next 12, Switch launched new Pokemon and Smash (being this one probably the most succesful Nintendo game ever at launch) games. Nintendo went all in, and did their best possible. Compare that to Microsoft and Sony 1st party exclusive during the same period....no contest.

5. Both consoles used its launch months during holiday season so they wasted that, selling everything they couldp've roduced during a period used to buy products and gifts. In my opinion, launching in March, like Nintendo did with Swith, is way better to have better sales during its first 12 months, because at launch, if you produce 2M, 3M consoles all of them are going to be sold quickly, and then you have the holiday season months after to have another huge amount of sales.

 

So, despite all of this, Switch with its best 1st party lineup ever, is barealy ahead of both PS4 and XBO in USA. It is accepted that the first 20 months of PS4 were poor, with the "PS4 has no games" tagline. At the end of the day, poor PS4 first two years equally the same than best 2 first years of any Nintendo console ever in relation to sales . That's why i think Switch won't come close to Wii in lifetime sales. Wii in the same period just had way more sales than Switch. I won't be surprised if the best years of Switch in the end are cosnidered its two or three first years..., like what happened to N64 and Wii. That's why i think Switch after 2019 wil start a decline in sales (if it doesn't happen already in 2019).

I want to add, that Switch numbers are very good, is just that Switch is considered like something historical in most gaming forums when at the moment still has not been that yet, just saying that.