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Miyamotoo on 09 December 2018
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colafitte said:
Miyamotoo said:

If Pokemon Lets Go sold 3m in 3 days, Smash will probably do around 5m in same time period, and around 10m seemes like a lock at end of December. With digital sales game probably is around 150k+ in UK alone, so that would mean closer to 1m in hole Europe, Japan is locked it will sell more than 1m (possible even closer to 1.5m than to 1m), and US probably around 2.5-3m, and few hundred thousand in rest of world.

Smash Bros is game that will be selling hole Switch life span, you will have new Pokemon game, new Mario and Zelda game, maybe even new Mario Kart game, but you will not have new Smash Bros game on Switch. So 15m+ Is a lock, 20m is very possible if game do more than 10m in first month.

Pokemon sold 3M in the same period and i guess it was something like this 1'1M in USA, 800k in EU, 700k JP and 400k rest of the world. Smash is supposed to be close to 2X in USA, but i don't expect that ratio in Europe at all. It will be close to Pokemon Let's Go because i'm pretty sure that in mainland Europe Smash is not as popular and Pokemon Let's Go should probably still be ahead.

But yeah, what you said is perfectly possible, what i said is what I expected from Smash before any news, so i'm not saying this is what happened, i was just explaining my numbers. Its perfectly fine after this news to expect better numbers too.

And the last point, Smash games never had the same legs as other Nintendo games like Mario or Mario Kart, so no, I still don't expect that to change. Brawl sold like 12M i think..., so well, 15-16M for Ultimate is what I expect, it's a huge growth still.

Talking about Europe, Smash Bros sold more than Pokemon in UK, talking about Japan, Smash Bros will sell much better than Pokemon in any case (1-1.5m), also Smash will easily sell more than 2m in US, most likely 2.5-3m.

I mean we will know most likely in few days, Nintendo will probably release PR announcement like they did for Pokemon sales.

To be fair previous Zelda, Mario and Mario Kart games also didnt had so strong sales like they having Switch currently, and whats more important those games were not bundled, Smash Bros will be same just with difference that it will be longer legs because we will not have other Smash game on Switch. How much Brawl sold is irelevent, Zelda BotW alredy become best selling 3D Zelda, and Odyssey will also be best selling Mario 3D Game, Smash Bros Ultimate almost certain will be best selling Smash Bros game in less than hole year (just in less in one month it will be at around 10m), also this Smash game that buy far had biggest hype.